Doorman

lets take a southern slider track out of the mix (ATM)

crazy azz west coast ridge is a solid bet for starters-imho

96 hr OPC (four day) prog clues us in with some validity

I misplaced my Etch A Sketch.........

Big picture .......old man winter has some cards on the table---or up his sleeve????

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, let’s use the most inaccurate snowmap available that counts sleet as snow….

Excuse me 19...does your mother still make your bed????   

thread starter      

46 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The 12z runs delayed the storm by about 12 hours but are colder so far, strong CAD signature, Im guessing slower allows the cold to dig in more before the storm?  

Timing is everything as usual HV

love these -battle zone - type systems 

always a big upside imho , within the small scale parameters

because we track...and take the smack 

the takeaway....look at how far south the snow line progresses!
 

Snow Signal Alert   

can you see the possibilities here????

weenies will be up late this week  

Sunday morning the southern stream energy will begin to eject
east and then northeast ahead of the approaching mid-level low
pressure. Simultaneously, the upper level low will be
approaching from the west with guidance being fairly consistent
on FGEN forcing developing Sunday morning. The sloped ascent
appears to setup from southeast NJ to eastern PA. The latest run
of the GFS and ECWMF have most of the QPF across central NJ
Sunday morning while the CMC has the QPF over eastern PA. The
other item of related interest here is the development of
surface low pressure off the NC coast Sunday morning. The CMC
keeps the mid-level low closed off longer and less progressive,
allowing for a slightly deeper and further west surface low.
Guidance is also showing another wave diving southeast out of
south/ central Canada Sunday afternoon. This would favor a
slightly more progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest
GEFS/ EPS/ and GEPS, a slightly more progressive pattern appears
favored at this time. The precipitation- type for this event
will likely be all snow as thermal profiles rapidly cool Sunday
morning.

I will channel Roger Staubach today.....well just because anyone gives a dang  

=======

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Day 3... Digging 500 mb shortwave trough over the Mid-South Saturday evening will move through the Southeast by early Sunday near the entrance regions of the northern (130kt) and southern (110kt) jet. Frontal boundary along the coast may focus an area of low pressure that tracks along or just offshore that would spread precipitation back across portions of the region. There continues to be many uncertainties ranging from track, phasing, and intensity as well as thermal profiles as the precipitation changes from rain to snow. For now, the greatest probabilities for 2 inches lies over the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge in VA (20-40 percent) while lower probabilities of 10-20% exist through the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that a hint of a prediction coming from you?!

 

betcha no one will even notice Bell 

but take a look at this....

think I see a few Olympic careers that washed away, in there 

If we tele-connect to the korean model on sunday 

a bomb cyclone on the east  coast is most likely then????

 she is a beauty ,wherever that is 

who is jim cantore???

last 5 runs 

the big three ensembles

EPS

GFS

GEPS

that's all folks 

Cold***

Stormy***

how much snow in your backyard-  TBD  

here we go...... 

left lean    

smell the dendrites

lets start a thread for this 

I will call the crew on here at this moment the lucky 13...you saw it first

snowstorm on the way!!!

I think we have enough data here atm...to keep things interesting on Sunday Night   

love the chaotic spaghetti chart 

let's see

cold rain---

5 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I'm currently projected to stay well above freezing until early afternoon tomorrow.  Precip appears to be essentially over by then.

22 hours ago, Doorman said:

Current Critical Thickness Prog  & Intellicast   Rain/Snow Radar Overlay

 

matches up nicely...

I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end 

 

-link to radar for those on the fringe -

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

spc meso

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

 

The OPC surface prog may give you an idea why the warmer solutions are in play

Dual Lows  on the front

if you are smart enough to login to the forum

you are smart enough to make your own forecast -imho

or just follow the smart ass poster you trust    

Current Critical Thickness Prog  & Intellicast   Rain/Snow Radar Overlay

matches up nicely...

I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end 

-link to radar for those on the fringe -

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

spc meso

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#