DTP

35/15 in Tega Cay-7 mi south of KCLT Decent 7-10 mph 020 breeze out there.. sky back to the west is overcast...be interested to see the low lvl deck as it gets closer- CAD plus a strong warm nose throws out some really oddball distinctive cloud patterns at lower levels

Several runs were spitting out a finger of earlier front-running precip until yesterday over W NC- the earlier the onset, the more likely it is to be a period of SN without the warm nose present..... As y'all say, it is probably nowcasting time

Lol- I think "were" is the key word here Who knows with this storm? The ST models started throwing out more plausible solutions around 18z yesterday, but this is well in advance of anything the models were throwing out over the last 24 hrs

So does the radar- I havent looked at what is actually reaching tbe ground (some of this is virga), but the front edge of the returns are at the very western tip of Oconee Co (SC)/Rabun Co GA as of about 7:45 am- W-E orientation Returns look to be all snow north of Chattanooga with bright banding to the south

39/19 in Tega Cay with NE @ 7 Up from 34 at midnight Clouds beginning to filter in

Cold sitting just north of the Red River- there are low mountains in S OK north of the River, and it takes a bit to push cold over top with a west-east orientation that currently exists. Classical Blue northers typically are accompanied to 35 to 40 mph gust fronts with a strong north wind and 20-40 degree temp drops in a couple hours, and this isn't one of them....this will be more of a slow bleed with crashing dew points/evaporational cooling....hang in there- it is coming, but cold air is really dense and slows when it has to push over top....it will take a bit longer with this type of setup than with a normal arctic front you are getting overrunning now- as the cold continues to bleed south- you will go over to ZR soon, then mix in/change to IP as the cold air bleeds south and gets deeper...nothing to block it after it pushes over top of the Arbuckles You can see obs on the other side of the range already in the 20's....you can also see the cold air atw down to Midland- faster between Amarillo/Lubbock/Midland- just high plains and really no topo to climb over/around outside of Palo Duro Canyon

Given the topo, placement of normal CAD/wind direction, the attendant high(s) (apparently the high is going to split), spotty/showery initial nature of the precip, plus DPs/temps- latest NAM finally looks to be picking some granularity ....

Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill. We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location as what the NAM is currently depicting. Temps during the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well Like I said, different 850s......but same signature- this would be sleet, and lots of it

NAM verbatim looks like a lot of IP in CLT/SC upstate w intermittent freezing drizzle between the IP showers.....looks to be some sort of upper level dynamics/instability on the southern end of the wedge- you can see the showery nature early and then how it fills in around CLT. Not that it will snow (not happening with the warm nose)- but we have all seen that similar signature with a trailing ULL on sliders around the southern part of the wedge The latest NAM is the first run out of the last few days where I have actually seen something plausible given the setup based on previous real world outcomes in our region Apparently followed by a ZR squall line to end it= also somewhat suspect.....normally these end with a period of light snow with the wind veering a couple clicks east of due north, even in the NC piedmont/SC Upstate as the arctic front squeezes every last bit of moisture out Then downsloping cuts everything off as everything shifts a couple clicks west of due north, and the settles somewhere between 270 and 320

There is a connection; i spent a large part of growing up in Plano- i had mentioned this in a earlier post about N Texas being a good place to monitor with regards to what happens during the initial part of the storm... so keep em' coming

Just a fun (or not so fun) part of nature. My parents (in Rock Hill) had trees coming down in the woods behind their house for 15-20 years after Hugo in 89'. Some from ice storms, some from thunderstorms/high winds....you can also see several swaths where small tornados came through during the storm

I don't disagree with you- sub-zero DP take quite a bit of time and precip to overcome at the surface, but I am not sure how well this variable gets modeled by the NAM, plus or minus

Guess I will also be cleaning up the bars/ports and sharpening the blades on my both of my Stihls today I have at least 7-8 30'+ pines still leaning from Helene behind the house- this will take down a couple of them at minimum

10-4 and my bad- didn't know if you were referring to blended or non....pure sn, really tough call tbh, but certainly plausible given your location and the dry air at onset

This is oddball question, and I have never really considered this: given that wind direction is SW just above the surface (and at a lower level than the Blue Ridge in many instances), wouldn't the whole CAD mechanism actually work in reverse just above the surface given this setup, at least up to the top of the Appalachians? Obviously low levels in the wedge stay with 020 flow pretty much throughout- but I am talking about the layer between 2500'-4500' AGL- if this was the case, wouldn't it accelerate the warm nose NE-ward?

Def possible given the low DP; how much of that is ip v sn is probably the toughest call

The dews, if they verify as modeled, are the nail in the coffin (or ice tomb in this case); sub-zero DP represents very cold, very dry air in the wedge at the surface That type of airmass will be hard to overcome with precip, at least in the beginning. But it will happen, given the magnitude of precip/isentropic lift over the cold dome; then evap cooling kicks in with the precip and dews rise/temps fall to meet the dews as RH increases Looking like a decent to strong probability of a stout period of sn/ip for a number of hours at onset in NC CAD areas, even possibly into Upstate SC......really no way around it with those type of DPs, even with the warm nose pushing in as modeled

If it were falling on something already covered in snow, yes....the crystalline structure of the individual snowflakes changes the surface of the aforementioned curved object (branches, powerlines)...crystals have many edges and sharp angles that grab and hold, which is why they can stick to a curved surface Plus the cohesive and adhesive forces of water come into play, especially when the snow is slightly wet. Adhesive forces are what allow water molecules to stick to an object, and vice-versa; cohesion allows water molecules to stick to other water molecules With this in mind, sleet would definitely stick best to wet snow on branches or power lines

Not to my knowledge- spheres (IP) generally will not stick to another curved surface and typically bounce or roll off However, freezing drizzle between sleet showers (pretty common) definitely will stick to trees and powerlines, even more than ZR

Yessir- starts to get self-limiting very quickly at those rates

Lived in CLT area for more than half my life- I have never seen below zero temps in this neck of the woods I also lived in Gunnison and Crested Butte for 3 years- below zero highs were pretty normal, especially in Gunnison (sub-desert cold air sink)...really strange seeing those type of numbers around Charlotte

And you will notice the wild swings stop and begin to form a solid line of best fit

Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points

Not in quite a while......

Someone way smarter than me told me to go where the money is when picking a career. So I chose entrepreneurship in finance, private equity and health science Later in life, someone much smarter than them told me to go where you feel the most fulfilled. Now I am a builder and developer I don't totally disagree; however, I do feel as that science is well-funded and emphasized, but often times you have people like me making the wrong career choices for the wrong reasons (chasing $$$$ v using your powers for good)....I actually wanted to go into meteorology when i was a teenager, but went a different scientific route in school/grad school (pharma chem).....started and sold several companies, but hated the business end outside of the science, manufacturing, problem solving and data parts Much happier now tbh....