DTP

Both I would imagine This is an oddball storm

Good analogy/comparison Swiss cheese model in this case- the recent UPS crash in Louisville was under similar circumstances.....also a DC-10 crash in 79' (DC-10 was the predecessor model of MD-10s)- Boeing was also at fault here- removing the engine from the pylon was a long and time consuming process, so most airline maintenance just skipped the whole step altogether and took the whole assembly off at once....then jammed it back together with a forklift Plus you can't check for metal fatigue with the pylon still attached to the engine

Very cool- you could do a really neat graphical with an x,y,z as well to give it a third dimension Pretty friggin impressive as far as CAD events go

Starting to fill back in over the eastern Upstate as well- we just had a heavier burst of sleet and snow S of CLT about 15 minutes ago....didn't last very long, however

Upstate SC- my neck of the woods....modeled the precip shield down here almost exactly how it actually played out agreed on the thermals- they were off by a wide margin

Ya it was a little on the warm side, which is weird for the NAM (usually too cold); however, it did nail down the precip fields and p-type really well, especially in Upstate SC

Spent half my life in this region and I haven't seen a CAD event of this magnitude- the delay was probably the biggest issue...but you are correct- I would have some grace for everyone on this storm, including the local news mets- how this played out to current has been downright bizarre; and it isn't over

Believe or not, the NAM actually did a pretty good job up to current in modeling the storm

Latest NAM for later today.....ugh

You can see several of the trees that are leaning in the background- crossing my fingers that we won't have much in the way of ZR

We squeezed maybe 0.25-0.5" of sleet in TC, most of which fell after 2am

Looks like a rain shadow- most locations in that area have east or NE winds currently, along with higher mountains to the east and NE- downslope cuts off precip, upslope enhances. The above hole in the precip would be from downsloping; on the east side of the Apps/Escarpment you are getting the opposite- upslope (orographic lift) bc the mountains are located to the west and the wind is from the NE So the same wind direction creates opposite effects depending on which side of the mountains you are located. It will close when winds veer to the south and/or west this afternoon as forecast- the area around Chattanooga has S winds currently and is getting plastered with rain

I was one of the people who thought the model depiction of a squall line into the wedge looked kind of fishy- I may have to eat my words on this

I am just south of you <1 mile from the NC line- getting the first sustained returns all night- all IP and tiny flakes

Haha- that's a new one- this storm has a little bit of everything

Your DP is still super low relative to ours just S of CLT- this is a weird storm- we have been at 95% RH/19F for hours with very little precip- it keeps getting eaten up Seems the precip had no such problem out your direction, even with the dry air...figure orographic lifting may have played a role?

That will stick around for the foreseeable future with the cold over the next 7-10 days- the packed IP in your pic will take forever to melt

Seeing 16-17F temps just to my north across the NC state line....the cold air in the wedge is unreal

It looks to be filling in (finally) just to the W-SW of me- looking like mostly IP and SN- on the returns...19 here

Yessir- def a plus...seems like the higher up you are, the better the potential outcome once the wedge starts eroding- but I could def see wind being an issue up your direction bc of the gradient and the cold front later today I have a big 9000A Black Max that I normally use at my construction sites here jic

How it started here in N York County a couple hrs ago- we have had only 20 min of precip outside of the micro flakes, but it was enough to coat the driveway and road....everything aticks at 19 degrees

Not good- stay safe up there- wish y'all the best

Now sleet and tiny flakes in Tega- road starting to turn white

Just part of living down this direction- I lived on the N side of CLT for 15 years and we typically had 2-3 good storms per year- lucky if you get 1 every couple years down here in SC Dry slot is killing SC Upstate....probably for the best- I have 6-7 big pines leaning right now that will come down if we get enough ZR

19/18 Light sleet in Tega Cay- 1st precip all night outside of freezing mist