PhilsFanDrew

Whitehall Twp (Egypt) - Roads are completely covered. Untreated bare surfaces look to have 1.5 inches of snow. Coming down pretty hard now.

It's nowcasting time, forget about model guidance now.

Agreed. I remember even in 2016 with Winter Storm Jonas. Euro was the first to latch on and stuck with the longer range models. GFS and others caved and then about 12-24 hours before all the longer range models had it backing off. NAM held it steady as a huge snow dump, pretty much had the deformation bands verbatim to where they actually setup which caused 3+ inch per hour rates and 24+ inches. While I don't expect the LV to get into 24-30+ inches, I think it's wild to start totals any less than double digits here. I like 15-20 inches for the LV with locally higher amounts.

I've seen enough, nothing for LV this weekend. Good luck to the SEPA/NJ/DE folks.

I'm more interested in the 18z Wed - 12z run Thursday to see if there is agreement or consensus in the models for setup and path. As of right now I'd say my confidence for a large scale area wide blockbuster is probably only at 15% right now but that is solely based on past runs and current ensemble members.

No we aren't. The piece of energy that is responsible for this storm signal hasn't even made landfall in the US so models are basically guessing at this point until it can sample it.

4:50 - Whitehall, PA - Back to heavy sleet, little to no flakes. Have a feeling its going to be like this back and forth until the system pulls away.

4:27 - Whitehall, PA - Snow trying to overtake the sleet, back to a true mix.

2:47PM Whitehall Twp - Back to mostly heavy sleet with the occasional fine flakes. Definitely seems like we are right on the battlezone.

2:20PM Whitehall Twp - Was nearly exclusively heavy sleet over the last hour. Flakes making their way back for more of a 50/50 mix.

Egypt, PA (Whitehall Twp) 1:20PM - Now heavy pingers with a little bit of snow mixed in.

Egypt, PA (Whitehall Twp) 12:47PM - Just starting to hear some sleet hitting the window. Mostly still snow for right now.

Whitehall Twsp, PA (Egypt) Just finished the first pass at the driveway with the Snowjoe, easily 7.5 inches and some areas more with drifting. Heavy snow.

6.75 inches Egypt, PA Whitehall Twsp as of 10:45AM

Let the dog out one last time 5 mins ago, no flakes as of yet in Egypt, PA.

Higher ratio snow. While I agree that it's very likely much of the LV is near or at a foot when it changes over, I don't see how it touches anywhere close to the high end when its far more likely than not there will be mixing and not just in the final couple hours before it pulls away.

That seems a touch high. I think 10-16 is far more reasonable for the LV. I'd be surprised but not shocked if LV was held to below double digits. Ratio is going to be high throughout until there is warmer air aloft causes mixing so unless there is virga or a dry air slot for an extended time I think it's rash to aggressively slash totals.

Agreed. Obviously I'm mostly concerned about my neck of the woods in the LV and I'm not paying as close attention to points much further north or south. I still think 10-16 inches is a reasonable forecast for the LV. 15-16 if by some chance it remains all snow. But I think by the time mixing becomes a factor to lower totals there is already going to be 8-9 inches on the ground because of the higher ratio at the onset.

It's reasonable but I believe because the cold air is in place at the onset the ratios especially as you get to the NW of I-95 are going to be somewhere between 15:1-20:1. Even if there is mixing that reaches as far as Northampton/southern Carbon county, I think it's when there is already nearly a foot of snow on the ground and if that was snow it would be of the lighter variety that would only add an additional 3-4 inches.

Exactly this. Storm is imminent no matter what happens. It's nowcasting from here to completion.

It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV. The only run it didn't was the 12z today. I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame. When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out.