TalcottWx

I am thinking 3-6" here as a "way too early" range.

Light snow 21/8

Tip, do you have a lean in which way you would go for forecasting an overall snowfall swath across Sne right now? Gun to head?

Press 6 to hear Jay's whining about whining, which might be worse than the actual whining

NAM has been really bad the last two events for all of SNE. Just wanted to post a quick reminder about that. Still worthy of Tracking.

Still looks like a lock for an advisory snowfall nearly region wide. I'm skeptical we only see that though. That's been a relatively recent development and trend in the models. Still leaning toward widespread plowable. I haven't seen enough consistently to believe anything less yet.

If you're thinking about posting in the analysis thread: 1. Type and take a moment to think 2. Am I whining or does this provide value to the thread? 3. If I'm whining, hit delete and move on.

For the love of God, we know how you're feeling about this winter lol.

0z GFS

Tblizz and George both banned from starting storm threads IMO.

Ahh yes, good start to the night. You will get burps here and there until proven otherwise. Odds are still on our side.

We need to get back to daylight tomorrow morning on the models without any more steps back.

If my aunt was a man...

If you would have never put out a forecast at that range for 15" of snow, I'd argue that outcome isn't considered very realistic yet. Maybe I'm approaching this the wrong way

My gut says he gets it! Would be nice to get S CT peeps in on the action. Hell, bring NYC into the party.

No one is stupid. I am saying it is stupid to be enthralled by a single euro run at that range. It was ultimately still in clown range. If that's the case, there shouldn't have been what seems to be a needlessly emotional investment over 100+ hours out. Those runs should have been taken with a grain of salt. Hard to be disappointed if that's the case IMO.

I'll take my chances with this look. I like to see it moving south instead of further north. Encouraging actually.

Now this would be a relative disappointment. We hope the 12z euro is on shrooms.

It's certainly a concern that euro showed that at 12z. I am trying to keep an eye on the big picture tho. The original blockbuster runs should probably be viewed under the same lens as this scraper outcome today. It's just a single run and I will not be concerned (or vice versa when it showed the bomb) until a trend develops. Right now there is an undeniable trend away from a massive storm tho, toward a more down to earth solution. That is true. With that being said, it would not be wise to overreact to this single run. Stick with the ensembles at the time frame. It's just far too early to be concerned considering the modeling showing plowable snow for the last few days. I'm sticking with the idea of widespread significant snow until we get more runs in. Sticking with consistency until we know more.

The biggest euro run of Georges life

I totally disagree in this terrible winter people should be happy we're getting plowable snow, don't know what to tell you on this one. We had a few runs go bezerk over 130+ hours out. There should be no investment in a model outcome at that time frame. It was never a completely viable outcome. It showed a historic blizzard at far too early a time frame, not sure how it can be a disappointment.

If you're just joining us, and you're confused by the complete and utter stupidity in here, this storm still looks good. Plowable snow likely for many. Unfortunately some of the loudest in the room have been adding very little value to this analysis thread. Would be nice if they perhaps read, digested, and learned from our Mets and best amateur forecasters. Instead we are continuing to get emotionally driven sh*posting.

We have a 6-12" storm likely coming. Please stop. Please.

6-12" still on the table for many, a major impact snowfall. Not historic, but stuff it if you're disappointed. Still a period of time here where we can trend snowier. We'll see what happens.

Not one piece of model guidance is showing that. We really need to cut down on posts that are completely and unquestionably wrong. The confusion it causes gets old. Do better