TalcottWx

As I previously explained..... I am talking about the difference between a moderate and major storm for E MA outside of SE MA and Cape. If the major snowfall ends up down there. It's a Cape storm.

Annnnnd the GFS just took the lowered the monster 10mb in one run at 06z.

Less amped.

Just the difference between 1 and 2 feet among friends in E MA

I'd be shocked if Ray sees less than a foot. But he definitely has a better shot at 12" than 24". I can't see a mitch situation. That thing rotted over his head for how many hours? I don't see bands staying that stagnant on modeling for a significant duration over one location on any guidance. Bottom line, QPF is a load of horse sh*t in the end. We'd be sitting pretty no matter what in the mid levels. Definitely east of ORH. I don't even buy warnings that far west to NY State border. I don't get it at all. Inside of BOS could easily be limited to 6-12" with a 12-24" region near the canal, se ma, and the cape. Very weird for me to see BOX so all in despite lack of overall consensus. Their confidence builds mine. But if Harvey was on the 6-12" train, I'd be completely off the bandwagon.

Well, just to confirm what I am saying: difference between a moderate and major snowstorm. They thought about blizzard warnings for areas this morning. I think a 6-12" would be a bust in many eyes here and in Taunton. Interesting to see multiple shifts confirm the big totals there. Also important to keep in mind Harvey is fully on board. Another thing to explain further regarding potential blizzard warnings: BOX has been very hesitant to release those outside of our most major storms. Yes, plenty of blowing and drifting could occur with 6-12", but BOX usually doesn't throw around the blizz warn for that.

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't mentioning this as potentially being a Cape and SE MA special.....

RGEM would be a toaster bath. It's still 6-12" east of ORH, but it's just a moderate snow storm. 6z NAM would be a good storm though. Something doesn't feel right with me on this one for those massive totals.

Remember last storm in January when BOS definitely had blizzard conditions and for some absolutely stupid reason they claimed it didn't verify?

Winter Storm Warnings issued for all of southern New England. Did give some thought to Blizzard Warnings, but since only have moderate confidence in the precise storm track, prefer to let the next shift take another look,

When the national weather service and Harvey Leonard are both agreeing on 12-24", don't worry too much

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Taunton MA 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 MAZ006-007-014>016-018-019-021-022-121600- /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0007.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/ Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA- Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Western Plymouth MA- Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA- Including the cities of Lawrence, Gloucester, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected with near blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches, with localized amounts up to 22 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Portions of eastern Massachusetts. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, especially during the Tuesday morning and potential the Tuesday evening commute. Damage to trees and power lines are possible due to strong wind gusts. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

What's your take on these high end amounts? I rarely see Ray buy in so I'm curious

Not bought on the duration for 15-30". I'll say I haven't kept an eagle eye on this like last storm. I could see low 20's. Like 10-15" then 16-24"

Just going to roll with 10-15" for now as general forecast east of ORH. Seems like we have too much to work out. That's a very good storm too

H7 track can't be denied but just saying

I'm weary seems like we never ever ever deform.

Anymore details. I'm too lazy to get out of bed

Fine with me

For christ sake. I'd kill to travel like you do. Stay there man.

My sleep schedule is destroyed. Luckily Tuesday I may have my day job canceled. That would be a true gift.

*stares*

Literotica

I'm not worried in the least ORH on east.

We hope