AdamHLG

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

current status of the thread:  

Thank you!  I only needed to scroll up 2 posts to see this and I can go back to my day job.  That only took 5 seconds and I love a quick meeting.  See y'all for the afternoon briefing.    

By tomorrow, this threat will look absolutely perfect which will set us up nicely for the rug to be pulled out on Wednesday.

Well I think the idea is that it will probably snow. But the HECS and BECS typically have the GFS or Euro prompting wide eye emoji posts 5 days out and closer for almost every run. And when it goes away inside of 4 days, it rarely ever comes back. That’s the reality. And let’s face it. 3-6 is nice. But 30” with 3 foot drifts are better.

Personally, I think a 12-18 HECS is coming and everyone will cash in. It’s not any of the storms on the current play board. But it’s coming. I feel it in this pattern.


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We are in Costa Rica the past week on vacation. Regardless of the outcome of this storm, the fact that we planned this trip 6 months ago and we are under a winter storm watch and fly home tomorrow for a Sunday storm is absolutely PERFECT timing which never happens for me. I usually miss the storm while away. Thanks for the great commentary as I randomly checked on it this week laying on a pool chair watching monkeys play in the trees.


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How we looking?

After looking at that footage from mayfield I hope we are looking bust.


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Any flood pictures from Fells Point around? Or Baltimore County? Or is there no flooding here yet?


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Larry will bring 2-4 ft of snow to Greenland! WB 12Z EURO…

How much for Phili?


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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

its possible they didn't know what was going on. sitting there was probably the safest choice in their mind, especially in a truck. 

I could not agree more.  And while we don't know what kind of truck this is, if its an 18 wheeler its not exactly as maneuverable as a small vehicle.  And even at that, this escalated very quickly with very poor visibility.  Chances are this driver is not the weather buff that we are, and the driver is probably not expecting a tornado, in PA no less, at that moment.  Even if I was the driver and surfing this forum and RadarScope at stop lights, the last thing I would expect would be that a tornado would actually hit me given the probabilities area wide.  I probably would have froze with my foot on the brake as well.    

^^ and more recently than Snowmageddon, we talk about severe, but only a few weeks ago lightning struck a house in Frederick County and a firefighter was killed.   

I had just stepped onto the elevator at work on an upper floor on my building and as the doors started to close they shook back and forth pretty violently within the tracks such that the elevator cab was shaking too (also from the quake but I thought at the time it was from the door issue).  As the doors struggled to close I was like "WTF" and jumped out of the elevator car back onto the landing.  I thought it was the elevator having a seizure until my co-worker hurries out of our suite and proclaims "Earthquake - get out of the building" and he ran for the stairs.  I just stood there at that point and thought to myself "no - WAY" and then quickly thought that if it was that strong here then where was the epicenter?  In that moment I thought it could have been a catastrophic quake 50-100 miles away.  That was the truly scary part - the next 5 min of checking social media.       

I was not expecting a FFW to be issued this afternoon.  I thought maybe a few days of quiet ahead after yesterday.  I guess not.

        

M0.59" Reisterstown. I'm right by the PBS station off Owings Mills Blvd.

That is probably more accurate I was driving from Towson to Chestnut Ridge I could not see past the car in front of me when I got home I realized the storm was following me about due north for a good 30 minutes. That’s not a normal storm track. That’s tropical like.

It’s still heading almost due north.

It is deluge town in Chestnut Ridge northern balt county. Man. For a non thunderstorm this had to be 2 inches or more past hour but I don’t have a rain gauge.


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Per CNN, the 7.0 magnitude quake in 2010 killed between 220,000 and 300,000 people.

This one is 7.2. We can only pray that this one is more remote or deeper or just different somehow if that’s even possible.

I pray this is not the beginning of what could be a horrible story. And yeah a TC heading that way too.


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There's been another major quake in Haiti.  That's not good.  

3 major hits this week of severe.  If anyone missed all 3 events I feel for ya man!!!   

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Another day, another line of broken cells that converge and go severe after they pass me.

Lots of lightning though, power has gone out twice. 

I picked the right day to ride this one out in Towson.  We got hammered.

Towson is about to get lit - up.  

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

This is one of the big providers. 

 

https://www.earthnetworks.com/Portals/0/pdf/ENTLN Global Slick_v4.pdf

So it is triangulating with antennas after all.  It is pretty amazing the tools we have today.  

22 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Lightning tracker looks solid 

Is there an easy way to explain how this works?  I watched a pretty good bolt hit the ground very close to me in Towson with a huge bang last round of storms and a few min later on Radarscope it showed the bolt inside the blue location circle on my iPhone - - amazingly accurate I might add as the bolt hit to the south a bit and it was almost pinpoint accuracy to my eye on RadarScope.  Are there lightning antennas all over town and its triangulating?  That can't be it you would need to blanket the entire country!

   

A suspected lightning strike sparked a 2 alarm house fire in Frederick County resulting in a mayday on the fireground. Thoughts and prayers to the Frederick County FD and family of the fallen firefighter. It has been posted in fire department circles that this is a LODD.

Still couple of hours out... so we watch

This is like hoping to get that warning criteria snow we missed on the back end.


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5 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

On the other hand, now that I posted this, we will probably get a tornado watch at 2 pm.


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I was 25 minutes off.  I am losing my edge.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0401.html

 

 

Not getting my hopes up. Putting the models aside there’s a certain boots-on-the-ground experience factor. If you look back on the top 10 severe weather days over the past 25 years, you know, the ones you really remember as weenies, I wonder how many of those events occurred on the “super hype” days vs how many events occurred on the typical “chance of severe storm” generic days. And then you add the geographic factor that probably 25-30 % of us win on any given severe day, plus the “when in drought leave it out” mantra. Plus the fog. Plus the crapvection in Pittsburgh.

Not that I won’t think about it this afternoon, but better to be “surprised” if the levels of forecasted severe actually come to fruition. I prefer the “wow it actually happened” feeling better than the “another bust” feeling. Same with winter.

On the other hand, now that I posted this, we will probably get a tornado watch at 2 pm.


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Just now, AdamHLG said:

I am getting phone alerts for the watch - and seeing it on this Board - before the SPC website even has the watch listed lol. 

Now its up on SPC.