AdamHLG

Its been a nice ride but I am about ready to cash my chips in here and go place some long range bets at the 2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion table.  

Currently 89°/ 53 humidity and sunny in Playa Conchal, Guanacaste, Costa Rica. I missed the ice storm and today. But I am pulling for my wx brothers and sisters that you flip back to puking fatties ASAP.


.

We've been watching trends for the past 24 hours and the RGEM is going to save the day?  This is the third sequel of this movie and it seems to always end the same.   Just sayin.    

It was this time last week that the rug got pulled a bit and we lost the 24”. 00z run. Fri night. It’s like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with each post.


.

When does the RGEM come out and give us 33.5” like the last storm? That’s tomorrow night right?


.

Happy to report from the northern tier that, while less than I personally expected, it was warning criteria (well at least what I qualify to be a warning around here at my back yard ) and it was fun to track and feel included for 2 days of an east coast storm.

But man... 3 days of modeling for the big one up north to be our baby only to have the rug pulled out by the NAM on Sat night hurt. Big reminder to me that despite what the Euro and GFS says about 24” 3-4 days out..... or that damn RGEM that stoked the fire ... Miller Bs will always be game time wildcard storms. I need to temper expectations.

.

One step away from Enhanced

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The cool thing about the usual 10 day Euro threats we see almost every run, they are moving up closer in time and replaced with another day 10 threat moving up etc. Cool cycle to have finally.  We (DC subforum region primarily) need to get the early week system to produce and break make the ice.

FIFY!!

For me, it was two back to back severe lines of thunderstorms that rocked Rehoboth Beach on the evening of September 3. I wrote about my experience here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52962-2020-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-general-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5648916


.

We better do this soon or the sun angle posts will start appearing.  

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We’re not going to know where this is headed...

I hate to say it but deep down I think we all know where this is headed.  We just don't want to accept it.

^^ wow its pretty even the amount of day and night over the course of a year.    /s

Last night was easily hands down the best active weather day I experienced in many years. We are at the beach and when I saw Baltimore County under a tornado warning and listened to my friends tell me about the insane lightning show, it was my typical luck that I missed it.

But the line held and slowly made its way across the bay toward Rehoboth. The incoming storm at first was cool as the frequency of lightning was unbelievable. Flashes every 3 seconds or so. However then the incredibly frequent CG hits started encroaching and I had that “be careful what you wish for” moment. It was concerning !!! When the storm was finally overhead it was not as terrifying as the approach however.

So that would have been great all by itself. But then the phone alerted again with a warning an hour later for a second storm. I never get second storms.

This second storm was not as terrifying on approach , but when it was overhead.... holy hell. It lasted about 30 min and the last 10 minutes we must have had at least 100+ CG strikes within a mile of our house (or so it seemed). It was truly really scary and I’ve not felt that way in decades. We were bombarded with CG strikes.

We even had a third not as intense storm 45 min later after that one.

I can close the severe season on this summer now.


.

Round 2 just starting at Rehoboth!


.

Rehoboth Beach lightning is insane. We’re about to get whacked!


.

I'm glad Omar is not heading to Baltimore. (Enjoyed watching "The Wire.")
totally miss out in 2020...

The "we are due" index is pretty high in several areas specifically:
1.) Derecho 
2.) Tropical system/remnants
3.) EF-2 or greater tornado
4.) Large scale river flooding event
 
Sooner or later the pendelum is going to swing back on us. 

5 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Alas, the Earth Cams are no match for both a derecho and a storm-watching public.

I watched it.  It was meh. The trees blew a bit.   I'm sure there will be localized reports of damage.  But the video was meh.

Back to watching the tropics again, the lack of severe weather in Baltimore, and the early 'winter is over' discussion on the other threads.          

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Here's one of the cams in Chicago to watch as the line approaches:  https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

This is exactly the cam I have been watching for 30 min.  I have Radarscope dialed in too.      

29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We're all still waiting for our next region-wide event, though. We're starting to get into the time of year when pulse severe dominates generally. There can be exceptions, of course...but one reason I really like April to June is that you can generally get better shear and such. September can be really good too if things fall right. 

Given the fact it is 2020, the next region-wide event might just be a named storm.  After the dust settles down in the tropics.      

How’s today’s chances looking? Atmosphere was pretty worked over last evening.


.

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

This has a been a weird met summer so far...and spring for that matter. 

Don't forget the abysmal winter before that either!  

And the no-go wins. Barely a shower.

So hows today going?

Still quite a bit of showers and non severe thunderstorms to the southwest to pass through. Good sleeping weather.