AdamHLG

52 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That was a flush hit of 6 hrs of snow followed by 10 hrs of sleet. If that ends up being our flagship storm in a winter that was generally cold from start to finish, then I want my money back lol. I don’t think we’re done, though…not as long as we keep getting these outrageous cold shots.

In Central / Northern Baltimore County that was 10-12" and then a sleet bomb and then (and still currently) a cold spell for the ages.  The most snow since 2016 - it's been 10 years.  Many schools closed for about a week.  Major impact storm.  If this is all we get all winter I will take it in a heartbeat.  Hopefully we are not done, but imagine the mood around here if we didn't even get that?     

It’s pretty quiet in here for a once in 30 year storm. Surprised it does not have its own thread. Whats the best way to track the location of the front so I can time it for central Baltimore county ?


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As we sit here today, I think we are exactly where we want to be for next weekend based on what I learn on this forum every winter:  1) We don't want to be in the bullseye 10 days out; 2) We are OK because these events always trend north; 3) we are also ok because these events always trend south; 3) weekend rule; 4) the storm will make its own cold air; 5) the models did not ingest the latest data from airplanes; and 6) its a Baja ejection thing so no worries.    We are so back.              

I rate the likelihood of a storm by how many new pages to a thread get posted here after a suite of model runs. I don’t have science behind it but it’s the most accurate read of the situation.


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From what I gather there was some good news or one hell of a lot of willing this storm northwest. I guess I’ll need to look now too.


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Just …. Wow


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This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs.


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If you're bored waiting for the King, take a look in the other thread for NEXT weekend.

Has there been any updates in the data today as to potential onset time?   Ive heard from noon Saturday to overnight Sunday.  

Just now, Scraff said:

Always curious which snowfall clown map to focus on. 10:1 or Kuchera? Or does the answer lie somewhere in between? 

I would think for Baltimore area - north the Kuchera Ratio would be more accurate (if we want to call it that - - maybe "applicable" is a better word) based on the temp profiles for a cold powdery snow.

1 hour ago, frd said:

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.  

 

"Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs."        I have to admit.... I agree.  Call it what you will - global warming, climate change, etc.  However, here in northern Baltimore County, 2016 was the last BECS - let alone MECS.  It has been 10 years with no end in sight.  We used to get hit every 3 years.  I am starting to think the dream is over and we may not get hit again outside of a fluke chance storm every 10-15 years - - if that.        

Can’t really call it a fail yet. Technically.


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The overcast is rippin' here.  Gusts 0-1 mph.  

So beautiful this morning. From the jackpot zone just Reisterstown area. 4 + inches in my yard


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Hmmm.  Timely article I just read adds another data point......

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/weather/polar-vortex-cold-snowy-december-stratosphere

It feels like in the modern age this list can be locked shut and our days of editing the list to add storms are over.  Now, a "top 10 fails" list.... this is where the new action is. Hope this winter proves me wrong.

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/AndrewHolnessJM/status/1983616601464434863

First flyover shot I've seen. more tornado-like damage

wow.  

Where is the eye in relation to this Reuters live feed at this point?

Any other good cam links near landfall besides this one (and which of the cams on this link is closest to landfall)?  https://laurentviewer.netlify.app

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

Too soon.  It will collapse Saturday afternoon after 5 pages of discussion about it.

Several factors have me betting the under today.  This is just a gut instinct.  Storms just fired a bit to the east of the metros now moving away - leaving cloud cover.  To the west I see activity but it would really need to generate.  Id be more excited if we had bright sun at 1:25 pm.    Not to be a Debbie but I am taking the under today for the widespread flooding.  I have not looked at a model sounding - I've just lived here most of my life.  Disclaimer:  I do not have a red met tag.     

Visiting fam in Ventnor City NJ at ocean. It is raw. Mod-heavy rain, sustained moderate breeze to moderate winds with embedded gusts and raw chilly. Been a while since timing worked out to be at beach for a costal. 15 people here at house for dinner party all bitchin “it’s so gross out” and “ugh this is horrible” and I’m on the deck in my rain gear like Jim Cantore checking radar and posting. Great night. They think I’m crazy.


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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

The regulars that enjoy all weather will stick around and we'll complain about thunderstorms missing us until Nov lol

My house was hit by lightning on June 29 last year.  It caused considerable damage.  Everything now fixed.  I raise this as a caution:  Be careful what you complain about!  It took a split second lightning strike for me to convert from complaining that a line of storms missed my location to now having PTSD that a line of storms is approaching my location.  

Snow or no snow, do we think it's safe to turn back on the outdoor hose bibs?  Hard to imagine pipes will freeze again this winter.  I would like to start spring cleaning and I do not feel like going through the process to shut off the water and drain the veins again.   

I am having thread withdrawal depression.  There is nothing worse than going back to the lingering FOLKS thread and kicking the ashes around the remnants of the basement dumpster fire.

I really thought this would be the year to end the 9 year 6" drought in northern Baltimore.  To have it end this way is worse than the way the Ravens playoff run ended.