simbasad2

Agreed. Was originally thinking that it was going to be in South Jersey but overnight guidance has lead me to believe it'll be somewhere right along I-95.

What the hell is this 00z NAM lmfao... I think this solution is unlikely at the moment so this doesn't worry me, but this is a really funny snow map

Here's my first call, going a little bit on the aggressive side with the band that sets up over I-95. I think that the regional models (NAM/RDPS/RRFS etc..) have a better handling on how this storm will do has there will be important mesoscale features determining total snowfall that the global models just aren't able to resolve. My thinking is that hypothetically if the banding can really get going along I-95 then NW and SE areas wouldn't do as well because of the subsidence that would result

Created sort of a "0.5th call" as we approach around 60 hours from precipitation onset. Don't pay attention to the numbers on the side (I even crossed it out) just focus on the shade of the color. While not a full forecast, it does outline some aspects of my thoughts such as 1. Snow more favored for I-95 and surrounding suburbs, but slightly less confidence as you travel northbound on I-95 closer to NYC 2. Snow less likely as you head towards the far northwest suburbs and the shore 3. Despite these differences, the entire map is shaded as I think this will be an event where everyone in the region has a very good shot at getting some sort of snowfall

Measured 0.2" of snow/sleet/slush this morning. Though, this was after the changeover, so it's possible there was more that was melted

Final call for this storm, shifting everything to the north and west by a ton. The storm keeps trending slower and slower AND warmer, both horrible for our storm for everyone. I'm thinking I-95 will start as a wintery mix and areas just NW of 95 will start as some flakes before quickly shifting over. Far NW suburbs + mountains will still likely see some decent accumulations, but I removed the 6-8 contour for the poconos as totals downtrend even for up there. Schuylkill, Carbon, and Monroe counties are the only areas on this map that will remain all snow. Still can't rule out isolated 6"+ for those areas but not widespread enough to add the 6-8 contour back

I'm really disliking the overnight trends for I-95 and the immediate suburbs. 12z NBM has literally no snowfall for the entire urban corridor (Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks NWS forecast zones and points SE). This storm is reminding me of the one we had around this time in December 2019

Thank you!!

Reposting this here

Here are my thoughts regarding totals for the region for Tuesday. Keeping the heavier snow to the northwest with a sharp gradient as you approach I-95. I'm thinking I might shift this even farther northwest in future updates but we'll see

All the other regional sub forums have done it, I think a board for the December 2nd storm should be created sometime today or tomorrow

Drew up this quick map to outline some of my thoughts for this storm. Constructive feedback is appreciated! Blue - All Snow expected, accumulations around 2-4" localized 4"+ Pink - Snow, mix, and rain expected. A sharp cutoff will develop here and a slushy 0-2" will fall before changing over to rain, some of which could be heavy Green - All rain. Perhaps maybe a light mix at onset but this will quickly change over. Air temps closer to the shore could even reach into the lower 50s. Some rain could be heavy at times

Gonna put this here too.. The uber northwest all rain solution just seems unlikely to me

Maybe I sound weenie but I'll say it: When the Euro and GFS disagree on a storm like this, 9 times out of 10 the Euro will end up being correct

Oh yeah I know which one you're talking about, 1/19. It actually did pretty well in the medium range compared to other guidance which had the storm like 100 miles off the coast. Though I do agree it did pretty bad in the short range like you said, but it's not like any other global model did much better for that storm though