Ericjcrash

Not even going to follow frontal nightmare till Monday night at the earliest. 

Can't believe there isn't an obs thread for this blizzard! 

10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground.

10°, flurries continue. New dusting on the ground.

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Yes but unlike you, a random commenter, the physics takes into account that the precip is at the very tail end of the storm when it is extremely cold and the wind couldn't be further out of the picture. So while the storm average might be 13.5/1 or something, that time frame might benefit from higher ratios. STOP.

Don't need to weenie out, be happy QPF increased and don't fabricate ratios based on "physics". Just because it's fairly cold doesn't mean you get 20:1

13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

that was actually a pretty big jump... 0.56" qpf last run to .73" this run 1.5 inches at 10-1 and about 2.9 inches more with ratios...

You're not getting 20:1

49 minutes ago, sferic said:

I'd say 12 inches is a given

Eh, hopefully. You'll probably do well but Suffolk is locked and loaded.

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

banding is headed into the metro, here we go

Enjoy. Half the thrill is the unknown. Right on that line of run of the mill and significant in the boros. Good luck, hope this comes way west so I can get my .1 QPF the 18z Euro had. 

13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Throw a dart

Have it land on 1.

Honestly I'm having some PTSD for you guys of past last minute busts. Hopefully last nights runs verify. Good luck guys.

41 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

We are not far away from a nice event 

It's a week out. I can't do this again... wont take anything serious till 72hrs.

Ugh brutal radar watching ahead. Can't chase came home to a waterfall from my light fixture hanging in my kitchen ceiling and a nice grotto aka my basement featuring springs. Ugh.

1 minute ago, Euripides said:

 

Didn't Boxing day blizzard models two days prior go out to sea only to come back the day before.

I still remember Janice Huff saying an inch or two and was like wow you did not check the updates.

Think it was a full 48hours when it came back. I remember being at the bar and seeing it pop back up on models on my BlackBerry lol.

Consistency 

Jesus. 

Lol at NAM, coastal meltdowns on deck 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Will it be that windy if the low is halfway out in the Atlantic? 

Lol, well you still have low ratios if there's no precip.

9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

I agree but remember the Boxing Day storm had good ratios and very strong winds but still managed to pile up.

I remember boxing day as a dry sandy snow. Not the best ratios iirc 

If you're on the coast expecting 14:1 ratios with that wind you're going to be disappointed. 

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport)

I will wait for tonight's 00z runs

 

Odds leaning for the trip to LI

 

Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker

Euro looks sick, if negative I should go to Queens.

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Close to euro from 06z

Got 6z Euro maps? Awaiting PCR results I've been down for the count for 15 hours and lost. See GFS and UK are swimming.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@Syrmax NAM would be chaseworthy 3-4' across SNE

Ridiculous shift west.

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Extrapolating that would be a hit for CNY

Oh where art thou DGEX?

Anyone have a weenie Euro control run Kutchera clown? 10

I think we all need a Euro control kutchie map....