BristowWx

Just now, Ji said:

wow wasnt expecting this the deep into the first week of January. that is not a pattern change

?  There is low in the gulf high to the north and 50/50 low…cmon man

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also that was the new worst GFS run of all time

Yes

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Don't we want to have the mean squeezed between cold and dry and a warm juiced system in the long range?

Yes yes we do.  

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Only boom there will be is me shittin on my blinds. 

I often wondered how I would explain shitting on my blinds...like if someone walked in....not something you see every day..."honey the GFS sucks moose balls yet again so I am going to shit spray our window decor...BTW whats for dinner?"
 

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Whitetail looks the same too … not a great time for the ski resorts 

probably isn't that much better way north either.  I looked at Hunter mountain up in NY...45 rain...spring conditions...waiting for cold the report said..no snowmaking.  16 inch wet granular base...thats rough for sure if you planned your week to ski

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I still believe in a boom/bust future - but we've been waiting a long time for the "boom." Where is my 40" climate supercharged storm

I actually miss the hand wringing of watching the rain/snow line dance nearby. we are not even close to that right now.  but we arent the only ones so misery is loving the company.  I do think we will get a period of winter but I am betting it will take a lot longer than people want it to.  Just to scour out the warm to our north..start laying down snowcover...arrange the players on the field...get a shortwave to come up and actually be in the right spot with a cold high to the north..a 50/50 in place...cold throught the column....jesus that could take couple to three weeks.  The easy pickings days of just "lucking" into a snow event seem impossible now...nearly all has to be right for us to even be in the game outside the mountains.  

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago.  At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years.  Is that off the table?  Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at?  Muchas gracias. 

Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. 

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts.

are we pushing it to the end of January now?  

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In an attempt to lighten the mood, fantasy range WB GFS 18Z northern plains windchills, first time I have seen this in forever....hint of things to come?????

Interesting the lowest wind chill on that scale is -100.   How often does that happen?  

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I was about to call for a GFS upgrade to get it back into being a weenie model.  Digital blue at HH, baby!

Cold air draining like ground beef grease at the end of the run over Canada.  Damn.  

1 minute ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Who knows if the JMA is even worth checking out and I wish I could see the surface precip with it, but it shows a significant storm for Jan 2nd over the mid Atlantic. Probably won’t verify of course, but this seems like the most bullish model on this storm yet. 

I’ve seen the JMA score a coup hundreds of times…thousands

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless I'm missing something, that looks pretty rancid in Canada. Just Pacific puke in our source region.

Thanks Subtropics!  Remember that guy. Tried to block him twice.  Double block.  Never been done before.  

17 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What a damn shame.. was really starting to get excited for 1/8 and beyond.. can’t win anymore. Hoping to at least get another coating Friday into Saturday but even that seems like a wish at this point. 

I would think you would do ok on the 3rd if that setup as shown on the 12z is close to true.  it does suck to chase coatings repeatedly.  but its not like anyone else is killing it either.  the grass is still green at my moms house in Rochester, MI

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

98??  What happened in 98?

didnt 98 suck a giant stink hole?  maybe he means 1898...that was a solid year i would think

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol oh man, that’s like 3 nut punches in a row on the gfs

The important thing is not to panic.  hey wait a minute.....

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

534 line way north, though. No dice

a lot of you have said it but if we cannot snow with that setup in January then I went too high on my snow fall contest prediction.  being inside the 540 used to be good.  

Just now, Terpeast said:

12z a bit south, 850s bit cooler. BL still torched on the onset. We’ll see if it helps the backend

it does not

If hr 174 doesnt make you cry then not sure what will.

I can’t believe that 192 panel on GFS is showing rain with those rates inside the 534 line.  That should show us getting clocked even though it’s fantasy range.  

23 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Wow, Haymarket Va Weather.com 8 Jan. for giggles

43°

 

 

56%

NW 7 mph

Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 43F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

• Humidity61%
• UV Index2 of 11
• Sunrise7:28 am
• Sunset5:05 pm

Mon 08 | Night

27°

 

 

60%

NNW 4 mph

Snow likely. Low 27F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected.

• UV Index0 of 11
• Moonrise4:48 am

  Waning Crescent
• Moonset2:06 pm

Yep 8-12 pretty common around here.  A Christmas miracle 

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

On the ensembles or just the op?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Op.  Still it’s showing itself.  Could be noise.  Don’t like seeing it

It seems since chuck mentioned a SE ridge popping and we laughed at him there  seems to be a SE ridge popping in fantasy land.  

1 hour ago, Dendrimer77 said:

I personally like Weather Will's contributions, including these crazy maps. Have some Christmas cheer, man....or at least have another spiked egg nog. Merry Christmas everyone! May we all be blessed with massive snows soon.

We need a snow event like yesterday.  It been so long since we tracked anything.  People are just eating each other for nourishment.  Ripping each others hearts out and frying them in oil.  Then putting those hearts in a stew with lentils and carrots.  Merry Christmas to all.  

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Merry Christmas 

Ho ho f*** ho.   Just kidding.  You too brother! It’ll snow when we don’t care anymore.   

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Panic room about to go full blown operational in the next 10 days if we don’t get something. Gotta have at least a region wide WWA

If I wasn’t drunk on 120 min IPAs I would in fact be panicked.  Now I am slightly amused