BarryStantonGBP

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions it will be above average at least

It will warm up soon btw “it will be below average/average!”

but cold sstas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2025040100/cansips_ssta_noice_atl_6.png

8 hurricanes, 4 majors expected, and a landfall-heavy year Agreed more with these lot than most of the mainstream https://www.spglobal.com/esg/insights/featured/special-editorial/an-elevated-2025-hurricane-season

*which WILL warm up soon

Gary Lezak > jb

Not bullish im trusting Lezak more than the mainstream and he was more right about 2024 months before the season began, no revisions, more than the mainstream

I am mostly relying on the LRC and Lezak forecasts

yes (cool neutral)

Do you think they didn’t want to lose funding hence the over inflated storm numbers

He’s calling for 20-12-5 / 180 this year my forecast has somewhat similar numbers. 19-11-6 or something like that speaking of last year, here is what Lezak predicted versus the mainstream, which is why I’m not really taking mainstream forecasters that seriously these days: Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)• Named storms: 18• Hurricanes: 11• Major hurricanes: 52024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically Source Forecast (NS/H/MH) Accuracy Grade Notes TSR (Dec) 20/9/4 Overpredicted NS, nailed MH B- Started strong, but jumped the gun Lezak (Mar) 14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5 EXCELLENT A Criminally underrated. Nearly perfect CSU (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Good hurricane count MFM (Apr) 21/11/– Missed NS by 3 B Solid hurricane prediction, vague TSR (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Clean on H & MH UA (Apr) 21/11/5 NS too high B Middle of the road MU (Apr) 26/11/5 NS +8 = fail D+ MH decent but otherwise bloated NCSU (Apr) 15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4 Solid all-around A- Only slight MH undercall UPenn (Apr) 27–39 / ?? / ?? LOL F Must’ve been high SMN (May) 20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5 Slight over, still fair B+ Rounded accuracy UKMO (May) 22/12/4 Over NS B- Mid pack NOAA (May) 17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7 Too wide but technically right C+ Cowardly range TSR (May) 24/12/6 NS +6 D Wrong type of aggressive CSU (Jun) 23/11/5 Same B Clean hit on H & MH UA (Jun) 23/10/5 Also solid B But too high NS again TSR (Jul) 26/13/6 Wild overprediction D- Absolutely NOT CSU (Jul) 25/12/6 Big miss on NS D+ MH okay TSR (Aug) 24/12/6 Same as July D Doubling down on wrong CSU (Aug) 23/12/6 At least H & MH matched B- But still too much juice NOAA (Aug) 17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7 Safe again C Politician forecast

Praise lord lezak

Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers

What are you trying to imply here?

20-12-5/180 they're the most accurate despite being an alternative forecasting agency

Bro have you seen the forecast from Lezak

Too low

What would this imply for the hurricane season?

do we have this for 2025?

I’m mostly paying attention to the lrc tbh

What paths and intensities are you thinking for those two?

Which ones to look out for?

TWC April 17, 2025 19 9 4