mempho

Thankfully, we have the internet. It's just unfortunate that live feeds, outside of satellite, are pretty much limited to the availability of working cell towers. I'm sure we have some brave souls out there tonight who will eventually get us the story- it just won't be tonight. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I saw video from the Beau Rivage during Katrina-- not from a journalist. As far as journalists go, their job is to be willing to risk their lives to break the story. What if Bob Woodward had been a coward? It's what they are supposed to do- no matter the actual situation. I wonder how much everyday crap that we've never heard about that they don't report on because they're afraid of getting whacked when I see stuff like this. Like I said, there are some blue sheds out there willing to take the job if the current crop of reporters can't take the risk. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Stuff is bad out there on the cape but noone is there to deliver the story. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Indycar drivers get paid to drive 230 mph. There are risks to getting the story. And you'd better get the story if you're hyping for days with "storm of a lifetime" at the bottom of your screen. A guy is currently standing in drizzle with a 20mph wind under a palm tree. You know Blue Shed ought to have the job. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Coverage tonight is terrible. I can't believe that there's not a soul with a live feed on Cape Lookout or Atlantic Beach right now. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Fair enough. I can see your point as well and it is debatable. Are there any buoys moored directly in the Gulf Stream close to the eye that would enable us to see what actually happens? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I'm glad someone actually said it. It may not end up this way but this is currently defying the simplicity of the SS scale in that it's likely presenting a "worse" overall situation. Massive wind field and slow movement to boot plus there is ample evidence to argue that it could still do some strengthening. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I remember Felix- the 1995 version....it had an almost due west heading coming in and it stalled and looped.

I think it took me 5 minutes of "catch-up" reading just from this evening to get to at least 5! Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Perfect timing! Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

EWRC, bud. However, if this thing completes the cycle in time to take advantage of the warm SSTs and low shear, she could become annular.[emoji6] Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings.... A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular." Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

And exactly how would blanket worldwide acceptance of AGW have prevented anything if there were absolutely no dissenting opinions as of say, 1992? The thing about these methane releases is that this was going to happen anyway. Therefore, we can't really blame anyone for it. Stuff happens. People live. People die. People get rich. People with private jets tell me that I am a cancer on the planet. X

Going to be hard on the politicos who just wanted AGW as a means of consolidating transnational political control. Sort of hard to sell a solution when nothing can be done. Sent from my Milestone X

WAFF in Huntsville is reporting 147 in their corner of NW Alabama which doesn't include Birmingham or Tuscaloosa. These are apparently not all official numbers. Considering all factors, I would not rule out some of the larger numbers. I don't think it will happen, but I wouldn't be just utterly shocked if the adding machines got into Katrina-like figures. We're talking about some densely-populated areas that got hit with what amounts to a death sentence.

I'm agreeing with this part. I think the impression a lot of people were given was just wrong. I watched Spann and he did an excellent job and I don't know what else could've been done but I think a lot of the average people were under the impression that they were "supposed to survive" if they only listened and did what they were told. Honestly, everyone on these forums knew better than that before this thing ever left Tuscaloosa. Many people on here correctly said that it would be a miracle if it weakened or dissapated before hitting the Birmingham region. We had all of the indicators....radar signature, live video footage, storm structure, unthinkable g2g velocities....I mean, we all were sitting here and we all knew that this was most likely going to be a major problem for some portion of the Birmingham metro. We watched it strengthen and watched its breadth increased as it approached and all of us knew in our guts that the hall closet was no place to be for this one. I happen to think that people deserve to know what kind of risk they are facing and I think most of them ignored their gut instincts by trying to do the "smart thing" and listened to the experts. I don't feel as if anyone was dishonest or did a bad job or anything but I think the impression a lot of people had was just not in sync with the harrowing reality of the situation at hand. Personally, I think they deserved to know if for no other reason than to say their last goodbyes or make their peace with God. You know, I've heard it around the office today....people look at these pictures today and ask "what is the point of trying to stay in your closet if you're going to be killed no matter what?"

Not on his status?

FYP

I must be thinking about a much smaller neighborhood than you're thinking. I'm thinking about a 90 second maximum walk or so but I live in a fairly densely populated area that would be one of those areas that are difficult to flee due to congestion. So, it might be that there would be multiple multi-family shelters just depending upon the size of the neighborhood. My street has 48 homes on it and putting one in the middle commons area underneath the little "park" would make the maximum walk, door-to-door, about 60 seconds. Almost any shelter requires going outside to at least some extent. One shelter for 48 homes is infinitely more cost-effective than 48 individual shelters.

Not cost effective for everyone. It's just not. People spend $5k on a shelter and end up needing the money for medical problems so I don't think it's simply a matter of values. I do think, however, that having a community shelter is a great idea. I think it's a great idea for organizations like HOAs (homeowners associations). It's a lot cheaper to build one big one that everyone in a reasonably-sized neighborhood can get to than building one small one for every family. The cost per family would be fairly inexpensive.

Evacuation might not be the only feasible alternative. I believe there is a feasible and cost-effective solution out there.

From Brent Adair's FB (I'm hoping someone can falsify this statement, please): Just got information from a search team member in Pleasant Grove, AL....well built homes are no where to be found and people died in there basements. Some basements even damaged or "gone". This tornado may do things to the EF scale we never thought imaginable. Currently, my boss is looking for someone in Pleasant Grove...a long-time friend and colleague...who lived in Pleasant Grove and had a basement. No one he has talked to in BHM has heard anything from this person, but, if anyone heres anything that contradicts or verifies this statement, please let us know. Thanks.

Well, I hope you're correct. I'd like to get a decent handle on the survival rate but the 50% was an approximate number I got from a met but that doesn't mean that its necessarily accurate. This is a most important point, though. The survival rate for a violent (EF4+) tornado for people suffering a direct hit and who are sheltering in an interior room on the lowest floor of a standard wood-frame house is really a key point. If it's something like 90%+, then you would be correct in saying that sheltering in place is probably the best thing to tell the population in the path to do. However, if it's more like 60% or less, there is probably something viable that could be done for those in the path...because those types of probabilities are unacceptable.

From some non-internet reports that I've received from people that I know, I think the number is much higher. I have very good information that suggests that the number is at least 220 because of a large number that have yet to make it to confirmed reports and that just happens to be one little area about which I know someone who's in EMA.