mempho

It is difficult to survive a direct hit from an EF4 or EF5 even with a warning. When you have these storms rolling through densely populated areas like they did today, there's nowhere to go. There are very few basements in the southeast due to the water table. You get in an interior room and try to protect yourself from a roof collapse but your wood-frame building is going to get blown to smithereens. The only warning good enough to avoid this is one that comes early enough for evacuation. Personally, if I had been in the path in Birmingham and seen what happened in Tuscaloosa, I would have checked the traffic cams for congestion and gotten out of town. There's no way I'm going to try riding out an EF-4 or EF-5 in a wood-frame house if I had 40 minutes to evacuate. There are a lot more things that could be done with regard to these monster long-track tornadoes to avoid loss of life. I think the advice to stay in your bathtub and wait for an EF-5 to hit you is just insane. I use the bathroom for smaller events and quick spin-ups but that is not usually the case in these massive events.

This is scary.

That....puts some perspective on this. Brings me close to tears.

Wow...I just really realized what kind of dire situation this is in Tuscaloosa.

Thanks for the tip...exactly what I was looking for. Looks like it's at least in the process of passing.

Does anyone know the exact location of the front itself?

This is definitely what we've been seeing here and throughout our portion of the High Risk zone today. There has simply been too much convection for us to have a lot of tornadoes. We've had plenty of warnings, but the most prolific production in our CWA has been south and east of the high risk zone. I'm starting to think tomorrow's highest risk might be well south of where everyone thinks it will be and might be like south and central parts of AL and MS because there will be less interference with the convection that does develop.

It's just really hard for me to believe that this is going to pan out like this. I have a difficult time believing this, but that's what the guidance keeps showing.

This is a reasonable assessment and is very much in concurrence with my thoughts on it for tommorrow. It is highly unlikely yet it is eerily similar. I wouldn't exactly laugh at a 1974 comparison as my first thought when looking at guidance for Day 2 was "1974" but everyone needs to remember that nothing can be compared to 1974 until it's actually occurred. It's very rare..somewhere along the lines of predicting a hurricane season that will rival/surpass 2005. So, it's just not something we can ever expect to happen, but the similarities are there and are difficult for almost any wx aficionado to ignore.