PhiEaglesfan712

Perhaps the real difference between this year and last year is Nino 1+2. Last year, we had moderate, borderline strong el nino conditions in 1+2, a continuation of an el nino in that region from the 2023-24 el nino. This is why I don't consider last year to be an el nino. I consider it to be ENSO neutral, and even then, it's not a traditional ENSO neutral. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is very rare. Recent readings of Nino 1+2 is near 0, showing that the el nino that started in mid-2023 in the region has dissipated. So if we do get la nina conditions this year, it would be a true la nina, unlike last year.

High yesterday at O'Hare was 77. The high may not reach 70 today. I'm on vacation doing the underground donut tour at Fulton Market. Couldn't ask for better weather for it.

If we're going to dip into la nina in 2025-26, then 1949-50 is probably the best analog you're going to do here. I know that was 75+ years ago, but there aren't many years that go from ENSO neutral to a la nina. Plus, you had a strong -PDO and elevated solar (although it was declining by that point). 2020-21 would be the next best match, but that was coming off a borderline weak el nino, and we were still near a solar min. And while we had a -PDO, it wasn't as strong as 1949-50 and now.

You never know, though. 2007 was a strong la nina, and had Felix at around this time (the second big storm, after Dean). You'd almost be certain that another major hurricane was going to happen the rest of the way. But it didn't happen. 1992 was a one-storm wonder. 2007 was a two-storm wonder. I think we're headed for this type of year, rather than a 2005 or 2020. Not every hurricane season is going to be active.

With Beryl, we were still in early July, and had a lot of hurricane season left. We're now at about the time of the season of Andrew and Felix, in 1992 and 2007, respectively. I'm pretty sure people thought there would be more major hurricanes after that point, especially after Felix in 2007 with a developing strong la nina. Point is, you just never know. Yes, there will be more storms, but as we saw in 1992 and 2007, it's very possible that none of them are major.

The problem with that is many of those seasons were active early, or at least showed signs. 2022 and 2015 are the only one's you could make an argument against, and even those had activity in early September. If the first half of September is not active, then chances are, it just isn't meant to be this year. And that's okay, not every hurricane season is going to be active. Look at 1992 after Andrew, nothing happened in the first half of September, and the rest of the season didn't have a major storm (just 2 Category 2's, in Bonnie and Charley in late September, but nothing close to being as big as Andrew). Erin is almost certainly going to be the big event of the season. It's possible we get a second big storm (like we did in 2007 with Felix), but we're not going to churn out major storm after major storm like in 2005.

PHL June 75.4 (+2.2 1981-2020; +1.9 1991-2020) July 81.9 (+3.8 1981-2020; +3.2 1991-2020) August so far is 76.0 (-1.2 on the 1991-2020 average). It looks like we'll end the month with 23 below average days, 7 above average days, and one on the average. Very good chance we finish with our coldest August since 2014, and an outside chance (if we fall below 74.6) the coldest since 2000.

This summer's heat, at its peak in late June and July, was intense. However, outside of that, during the first 2/3 of June and most of August (outside of the heatwave on the 12th-17th) was well cooler than average.

90 degree days are just about done for the year (unless we get something like 10/2/2019). For the second straight year, comfortable conditions and a lack of heat will dominate the US Open in Flushing:

The difference between those years and this year is that in those years, the signs were there early on for an active hurricane season. This year is skewed by one storm, almost like Andrew in 1992. 2005 was a record-breaking season from start to finish. Still holds the record for highest ACE, most hurricanes, most major hurricanes, most category 5 hurricanes, and latest storm on record. The records that 2005 has since lost is most named storms (to 2020) and earliest category 5 hurricane (to 2024). There is nothing showing there will be an active hurricane season this year. If anything, it looks more like 1992 (with the active Pacific) than 2005, 2020, or even 2024. We won't get 75-82 ACE after October. I can almost assure you that. 75-82 ACE might be the whole season total (1992's total was ~76 ACE, and that was with Andrew skewing the numbers).

There were warm winters before 2011-12, but they were fewer and further between. Like if one happened, the pendulum would have almost certainly swung the other way the following year. But after 11-12, it's been warm winter after warm winter after warm winter (with the obvious exceptions of 13-14 and 14-15). I wouldn't say 21-22 was decently cold/seasonable. Only one month was (January), but the rest of that winter was well above average temperature. 24-25 was for the first time since at least 17-18 (and you could argue 14-15) colder than average more often than not.

The only one I'd really take is 17-18. That's probably the closest thing to a great winter all-around since 13-14 and 14-15. I know we had the record warm February, but that was an outlier compared to the other months (December, January, March, and April), which were all below average. 15-16 and 16-17 were high variance winters, especially 15-16, which was dependent on one storm that skewed the entire season. Areas that missed the storm had record low snow totals. The greater frequency of warmer winters. You could start to see it as early as 2011-12. The great seasons of 2013-14 and 2014-15 interrupted the pattern. But after the mid-2010s el nino ended, you can definitely start to see a pattern change.

You have to take a closer look at the seasons. This year looks more like 2007, a year that was (at this point in the season) skewed by one storm (Dean). It would later be skewed by a 2nd storm (Felix) later in August, but after that, from September on, we didn't get much more than a bunch of minor storms. Years like 2012, 2020, and 2021 were further along in the alphabet, and the signs were there for an active season. I'm really surprised the ACE values were that low for those years. I just don't see that this year. It looks more like 1992 (one-storm wonder) or 2007 (two-storm wonder). The next 2-4 weeks will tell us a lot more. If it isn't active, then you need to let it go. The season isn't suddenly going to get active in October and November. As they say, the tiger doesn't change stripes.

If that happens, then any hope for an active Atlantic hurricane season is over. The next 2+ weeks puts us into September, which is the heart of the hurricane season. If it's a snooze fest, then there's a good chance Erin was a one-off (like Andrew in 1992).