PhiEaglesfan712

The last real -EPO/-WPO winter was 2014-15. We did get a nice -WPO interval in winter 2021-22: 2021 11 04 -1.31 2021 11 05 -20.98 2021 11 06 -7.63 2021 11 07 3.39 2021 11 08 8.04 2021 11 09 -32.10 2021 11 10 -93.68 2021 11 11 -125.89 2021 11 12 -99.82 2021 11 13 -60.12 2021 11 14 -25.64 2021 11 15 -13.71 2021 11 16 -25.31 2021 11 17 -40.49 2021 11 18 -41.37 2021 11 19 -65.80 2021 11 20 -101.84 2021 11 21 -89.64 2021 11 22 -89.38 2021 11 23 -114.97 2021 11 24 -60.54 2021 11 25 3.63 2021 11 26 -8.78 2021 11 27 -23.90 2021 11 28 18.52 2021 11 29 60.52 2021 11 30 73.79 2021 12 01 44.70 2021 12 02 10.69 2021 12 03 57.56 2021 12 04 -11.29 2021 12 05 47.68 2021 12 06 140.61 2021 12 07 152.65 2021 12 08 144.81 2021 12 09 142.25 2021 12 10 94.87 2021 12 11 5.18 2021 12 12 -42.68 2021 12 13 -20.06 2021 12 14 17.25 2021 12 15 27.18 2021 12 16 42.72 2021 12 17 37.61 2021 12 18 -16.18 2021 12 19 -65.67 2021 12 20 -86.62 2021 12 21 -167.98 2021 12 22 -157.53 2021 12 23 -155.67 2021 12 24 -183.65 2021 12 25 -150.32 2021 12 26 -103.17 2021 12 27 -76.73 2021 12 28 -43.84 2021 12 29 -17.47 2021 12 30 -37.54 2021 12 31 -58.02 2022 01 01 -90.22 2022 01 02 -180.61 2022 01 03 -213.31 2022 01 04 -213.68 2022 01 05 -221.87 2022 01 06 -187.22 2022 01 07 -144.26 2022 01 08 -122.83 2022 01 09 -86.36 2022 01 10 -42.81 2022 01 11 -19.79 2022 01 12 -27.41 2022 01 13 -27.77 2022 01 14 -27.47 2022 01 15 -54.76 2022 01 16 -89.03 2022 01 17 -127.34 2022 01 18 -163.56 2022 01 19 -171.84 2022 01 20 -163.62 2022 01 21 -108.57 2022 01 22 -35.04 2022 01 23 4.34 2022 01 24 40.36 2022 01 25 34.18 2022 01 26 -41.09 2022 01 27 -73.77 2022 01 28 -77.14 2022 01 29 -81.85 2022 01 30 -99.66 2022 01 31 -128.64 2022 02 01 -154.42 2022 02 02 -138.45 2022 02 03 -85.60 2022 02 04 -35.37 2022 02 05 -38.33 2022 02 06 -28.75 2022 02 07 7.18 2022 02 08 -1.09 2022 02 09 -8.10 2022 02 10 -67.71 2022 02 11 -122.15 2022 02 12 -142.13 2022 02 13 -179.43 2022 02 14 -159.40 2022 02 15 -172.53 2022 02 16 -148.66 2022 02 17 -92.58 2022 02 18 -62.75 2022 02 19 -70.66 2022 02 20 -104.45 2022 02 21 -75.72 2022 02 22 -37.88 2022 02 23 -11.48

1955, 1998, and 1999 would have been great analogs if we had a 175-185 ACE season and a strong la nina. We obviously do not have that this year, but for fun, I will do this run:

2009-10 and 2010-11: 2013-14 and 2014-15:

I think the huge difference is in 1+2. Last year, we were still in el nino there, which is why I'll never consider it a traditional la nina. This year, we at least have neutral to weak la nina conditions there, which correspond to the rest of the basin. Also, this -PDO is a continuation of the one that started in 2019-20, and went through the 2020-23 la nina. This is more like a 7th year -PDO, than a 2nd year -PDO (that was early in the 2020-23 la nina).

As they say, October snow is never good for the rest of the season. 2011 is another famous example, with the snowstorm on October 29, followed by a snowless torch from November 2011-March 2012 (and of course, an early taste of summer in late May 2012, and 100-degree days in July 2012 - the last ones until this June).

Here is the one for 2011-12 and 2012-13. Easy to see why it didn't snow during those years:

The difference is that we have a deep -IOD and Nino 1+2 is in an actual la nina state. I feel like temps will be well above average and the storms will miss to the North and east. Areas of coastal Maine will probably have the best chance for above average snowfall, maybe Boston. But there will be a very sharp cutoff to the south and west, places like Washington DC and Baltimore are almost certainly going to have another low snowfall season, probably even Philly and NYC.

Wait, I thought the Nor'easter was in mid-March 1993, not December 1992. I was 4-and-a-half, but I remember my sister being born (12/29/92) and then baptized (in January 93) first, before the huge snowstorm, which I think happened on 3/13/93 (when she was 2.5 months old). I do remember my mom telling me about a storm the night before my sister was born (12/28/92), but it missed us well to the south. I think NC got an ice storm, and the Delmarva area might have gotten snow.

We just had 2 nor'easters this past spring (April 11-12 and May 21-22).

Look on the bright side: At least we had more rain this October than last October. I still can't believe that we recorded 0 precipitation for an entire month.

But those storms prove that last winter wasn't a no-chance winter. We've had many of those in the last 15 years (like 11-12 or 22-23). Last winter was more like 20-21. The difference is the storm tracks aligned perfectly for NYC in 20-21, not so much last winter. But the tracks were still there. Also, 20-21 proved that NYC can still have good winters post 18-19. Or was that luck, and is NYC doomed to never have a great winter 20-21?

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day). While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event. I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area. Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. (Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)

Baltimore getting 80 inches of snow in ~2 months (from December 5 to February 10) is crazy. Almost as crazy is how the snow season abruptly ended. They got only one-tenth of an inch more for the rest of the season, on 2/15. (March was well above average temperaturewise, the temps reached 90 by April 6.) Makes me wonder what the potential would have been if it had continued to snow deep into March, like in 1957-58.