BuffaloWeather

Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This period will be dominated by a split...Pacific based flow that will support above normal temperatures through the period. This will especially be the case during the daylight hours when the mercury will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above typical late Feb normals. The split flow will be highlighted by another potentially significant rain maker that will originate in the southern branch of the unphased jets. Fortunately...broad, flat ridging over the eastern conus should all but guarantee fair dry weather to start this period Sunday and Monday. By Monday night through...energy ejecting out the longwave trough over the western half of the country will promote cyclogenesis within the broad southwest flow over the Ohio valley. As we the case with the initial uncertainty with our current storm system...the various deterministic models are out of step with the amount of organization and also with the timing of this next sfc wave that could produce another significant round of rain over our region on Tuesday. Expansive high pressure over the northern plains Tuesday night should then build across the Great Lakes region for Wednesday with only spotty leftover rain and wet snow showers.

Winter Returns... Cold air advection ramps up the second half of Thursday and temperatures dramatically drop below freezing. There will likely be a 1-3 hour period of sleet and freezing rain as rain changes to snow across the region. Then accumulating snowfall is expected into Friday. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch possible. Snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches possible in Niagara county and 2 to 4 inches possible along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the northern Tug Hill region. Elsewhere, 1-2 inches possible. Very cold with flash freeze conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the teens to low 20s and wind chill values in the single digits Friday morning. Winter Weather Headlines are possible Thursday night into Friday for wintry conditions across western and north central NY.

agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside

I'll be above 4k feet on Sunday I wonder if this storm that give us rain will produce snow up there? Anyone got the soundings to see the freezing level up there?

Latest NAM increased the FZR

52 and sunny is definitely shorts weather.

52 and sunny. Running outside season is back.

49 degrees and sunny.

Looks like we go from too amped to suppressed on GFS.

Toronto is having a great winter already 2" above their seasonal average and should get 6-8" in next event.

Looks like perfect hiking conditions on Sunday. High 20s and sunny.

Yeah probably some lake enhanced. RGEM looks decent.

GEM UK

Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county

GFS has another storm to monitor next week

We would need like 2-3" of ice to get the damage Oct 2006 had.

Buffalo is perfectly located for some of the strongest wind events in lower elevation locations. Its like a funnel up the lake and gets amplified. Another reason why I like it here. Now that my fence is fixed I'm back on the wind train.

Quite a few of the models now showing decent ice storm for WNY

45 degrees at KBUF, think we make it to mid/high 50s.

Ice storm?

UK

About 100 mile shift SE since 12z runs on GEFS

Here is 18z, thats a substantial shift SE. and 12z

Here is the mean. That's an 8.5" mean for KBUF at 1:10. Not sure how much of that is sleet.

GEFS went way SE compared to previous runs. The OP is NW outlier.