BuffaloWeather

Agreed, system has lots of issues. No big snowfall rates, thermal issues, secondary taking over, storm track uncertainty. I'm more interested in the arctic front.

KBUF mentions top 2 analogs January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014

HRRR

There are actually no snowfall spotters in the best spot along the Chautauqua ridge. They likely average quite a bit more than lori in Perrysburg up there.

Around 750 feet here.

Its similar to the Chautauqua ridge. You go from the coastline to 2300 feet in a matter of a few miles

I may have to add that to the hiking list. Not too high but should be some pretty good views of Lake Superior.

Marquette>Buf NWS. Those are beautiful maps

That's as much snow on the ground as 4k feet in the Adirondacks had during my hike over the weekend, impressive. Was anywhere from 45-60". La Nina years are usually the best for the Upper Great lakes. How many below/above average snowfall years have you had up there the last 10 years?

The higher res guidance brings primary pretty far north. Like I said yesterday the primary might make it up to Buffalo.

Northern Michigan has been having a great winter. Marquette with 155" on the year and 33" on the ground. WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ............................................................ TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 14 57 1984 27 -13 38 MINIMUM 12 -18 2001 8 4 20 AVERAGE 13 18 -5 29 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.71R 0.38 2017 0.09 0.62 0.03 MONTH TO DATE 2.35 1.72 0.63 1.04 SINCE DEC 1 8.88 6.65 2.23 3.88 SINCE JAN 1 5.11 4.05 1.06 2.48 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 12.2 R 7.5 1974 1.3 10.9 0.9 MONTH TO DATE 41.1 28.9 12.2 14.8 SINCE DEC 1 134.0 110.9 23.1 58.0 SINCE JUL 1 154.9 140.5 14.4 90.1 SNOW DEPTH 33

No 85 and sunny until November

I love being close to the lake as I utilize the lake much more in summer and its nice being close. Also the high dews on summer nights are my cup of tea.

Any snow doesn't matter for depth. It's March next week. It's go big or go home time

Enjoy enjoy this storm. The southeast ridge is making a comeback in March

Jamestown

Impressive arctic front on Sunday

Lake will be open for business again after this warmup

This system has loads of issues tbh. Look at RGEM storm track before secondary takes over, thats to Jamestown. And look at dry slot alleghany to Syracuse.

sounds about right, maybe even a little further north.

Would wager quite a bit we sleet at my place with that track.

Those maps are never accurate with the warm air above surface. You can take those maps and move the sleet line 50-75 miles north. Its happened with every event this year. That's unless the secondary takes over quicker which would limit the warm air intrusion with primary.

I would say south central NY. I don't think it makes it as far north as SYR, but the last few runs get it close.

Might be a dry slot somewhere when that secondary takes over.