Going to bed at just under 5" of snow so far and still snowing moderately should be able to make it close to 6" by morning. Definite over performer for round 1.
Models have a hard time with intensifying Miller A lows traveling along the apps(they are rare). The 50 mile NW jog usually happens within 24 hours of model runs.
Don't forget the inevitable last minute 50 mile NW jog. This is a rapidly intensifying low, which usually leads to a further NW event in comparison to a weakening low going further SE.