BuffaloWeather

I'm actually starting to cheer for Adirondack snow. I'll be doing a few high peaks Feb 21-23rd and want some deep snow there, just ordered my crampons yesterday.

The models and even the ensembles have been putrid outside of 4-5 days. Last weeks storm went 250 miles further NW in the last 72 hours.

Those were some ugly midnight runs. I think winter is over.

They were so bored of this winter that they decided to close up shop for the next 10 days.

Their registry has been sent back to June of 2016 1037 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF BUFFALO IS 70 DEGREES. 1037 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF ROCHESTER IS 70 DEGREES.

GEFS for Tues-Thurs storm

The GFS has been stringing us along all year.

Gradient right over our forum?

EPS GEFS

The long range all winter long but never coming true

Well the "storm" hits Tues-Thurs. It's a weak overrunning event.

Euro looks to be a hit too next week.

60 on Monday?

We've had full coverage for last 4-5 days here. At least it feels like winter.

Until this year I didn't realize we need the polar vortex to split to get any lake effect snow. Or is this year just an anomaly of the "one eyed pig" in Alaska similar to 2011-12? In a normal winter I feel like we should get cold enough to get lake effect snow without help from the PV. But this year that has been impossible. Worst lake effect year of all time including 2011-2012 and long range doesn't show enough cold air in the next 2 weeks for anything either. 2011-2012 had 8 LES events. I think we are at 2 this year? 1997-98 had 4 LES events, that is the least since 1994. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1997-1998&event=D

Thats a nice look for a battlezone around us for synoptic.

10 days of on the Euro.

GFS says go big

Cutters straight to supression, no in between.

Yeah that GFS run would save the winter here. 3-4' of LES followed by synoptic storm and another LES event. Tossing it though. Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me 69 times this year in the long range. TOSS!

The 4th-7th should be colder then normal.

Seasons in seasons

Euro says what cold, night and day from GFS. Euro says no snow for next 10 days.

Well that was a crazy GFS run.