BuffaloWeather

Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241710Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A watch is likely within the next hour. DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20 minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s (based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds (upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon.

Pretty rare day across Upstate 5% tornadic hatch

Perfect. Going with a colder then average December.

Yeah I want to say SYR and BUF run .1-.5 too high and Rochester runs the same but too low.

July Temps BUF: +0.6 ROC: -1.0 WAT: -0.1 SYR: +1.6 BING: +0.7

Current conditions at Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport (KSYR) Lat: 43.11°NLon: 76.1°WElev: 420ft. Mostly Cloudy 95°F 35°C Humidity 37% Wind Speed SW 13 mph Barometer 29.66 in (1003.5 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 97°F (36°C) Last update 20 Jul 3:54 pm EDT

Current conditions at Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF) Lat: 42.94°NLon: 78.74°WElev: 709ft. Partly Cloudy 90°F 32°C Humidity 44% Wind Speed SW 15 G 24 mph Barometer 29.63 in (1002.6 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 92°F (33°C) Last update 20 Jul 3:54 pm EDT

Current conditions at Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport (KROC) Lat: 43.12°NLon: 77.68°WElev: 558ft. Partly Cloudy 92°F 33°C Humidity 41% Wind Speed SW 15 G 25 mph Barometer 29.67 in (1004.5 mb) Dewpoint 65°F (18°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 94°F (34°C) Last update 20 Jul 2:54 pm EDT

You're gonna need a week to catch up. Its been busy.

82 here. The Sizzlecuse got us beat over here only 87 out.

I've tagged you 20 times in discord with no response, come back to us.

Current conditions at Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport (KROC) Lat: 43.12°NLon: 77.68°WElev: 558ft. A Few Clouds 90°F

All I know is I was backpacking in the Adirondacks this past weekend and it was too cold to sleep at night with my sub 30 degree sleeping bag. The low had to be right around freezing at the elevation I was at. If **** hits the fan, I'm moving to those mountains. They are protected from alot of the heat and humidity.

Next 2 weeks

Looks like a hot one around Rochester tomorrow.

This is great advice. I'll likely be moving in the next few years and renting out my current place. I want to get 3-4 rental units going at once, hopefully a multifamily as well.

The heat wave out in UK is quite worrisome. UK hit 40+ for the first time in its recording history. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/07/19/europe-heatwave-uk-temperature-record-broken/10094289002/

3.29” in Angola

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

CPC seasonal released. I think most here would lock that in quick

Low was 73 overnight which is quite crazy! Warmup coming this weekend. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

July Temps Looks like lake erie is keeping our overnight lows warm. BUF: -0.5 ROC: -2.4 WAT: -2.3 SYR: -1.1 BING: -0.7