JenkinsJinkies

Just now, konksw said:

The storm was always going to do what it was going to do. The post mortem would be that models are just that and shouldn’t be read as gospel. It’s also possible it overperforms. We won’t know till it happens because all we have are models. 

Yeah but some of the trends show a significant reduction of what the NWS is predicting.

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

What counts as underperforming? The precip max shifted 80 miles north in the past 24 hours so what baseline do we even use?

Looks like I was just reading posts from catastrophizing weenies. One of the posters here is in Alexandria and they’re already seeing flurries.

If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up?

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended looks better mid March period.

Too little too late. If we’re banking on March to save us snow total wise we get burned.

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, something must be wrong with that other map's algorithm for that run

That or it's almost time for thread number 2.

You think 6" is in play for DCA? Because that would bring it's seasonal total to ~14" which is slightly above climo.

19 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So when do we kill this thread for the new one so we can get to double digits?

When the models walk it back to a trace.

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its Winter forecast. 

To be fair a warm season doesn’t preclude a big snow storm. 2015-2016 is a good example.

CC could speed up the PDO cycles

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

You’d think we’re at 200% of our season average the way we are scoffing at a 1-2” storm

I think it's because the 18th-24th period is our only shot at getting seasonal totals above climo.

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Maybe that's where Chuck's weird clouds are coming from???

They were seen in 2021, the volcano was 2022.

18 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I hate being in the "bullseye" this far out

Looking at the other maps the bullseye is in WV right now.

Homestar Runner got more snow than us today...

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

4-6” DC north

If DC over performs then it'll be AN for the season. That'll probably put the CWG forecast in the "C" territory when they grade in in April.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Focus on this hole and no the gulf thing isn’t happening

I would kill for the rain snow line to be that far south.

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2023 was neutral

No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years.

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

is it going to snow again thread  
 

There is, but that question has been answered by this season.

The real question is will there ever be another 2' snowstorm again?

34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter.   It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold.

2012-2013

2016-2017

2019-2020

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion.


.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?facet=none&Metric=Temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false&country=OWID_WRL~Gulkana+Glacier~Lemon+Creek+Glacier~South+Cascade+Glacier~Wolverine+Glacier~Arctic+Ocean

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades?  At least pythons are something to look forward to.   

2090s for long term temp average.

Millennia for the ecosystem to adapt.

Matt at CWG isn't optimistic

Thread got made and its already getting walked back, and like clockwork it'll bounce back after the 2nd thread is made.

Probably T at most for areas on the lower side of the fall line. Again anything measurable from today would've been bonus points outside the mountains.

LR thread suggests a better event this weekend.

A little bit of slush on cars and nothing else. Today was supposed to be a long shot east of the mountains anyway.

1 minute ago, understudyhero said:

Bus driver shortages enable this. 
my

Kids bus was substituted and almost an hour late today.

This was also the case 5 years ago. Unless the shortage predates Covid.