griteater

See the GEFS tab here: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ For GEFS at 500mb, see: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html

For next weekend, each run of the GFS Ensemble spits out a few members with a decent storm. We've had some storms work out in the past with this type of setup, but the wave has to drop into the trough just right.

It was 1046 over NW Iowa Thursday at 7AM - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index.html

GFS was too far east. ICON and CMC were close. Just trying to stay in the game for now and hope it improves over time

Ha yes dig deep and farther west with big ridge behind it

It misses but interesting look at 500mb

You said it was a clipper. Can’t come back now

Made a post about it here - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53090-one-more-shot-feb-20-21-event/?do=findComment&comment=5481759

Ha, "it snowed every Wednesday for 3 straight weeks in March of 1960 in a repeating wave train"

Not hating the look for next weekend as the models continue to try and drop a northern stream wave down on top of us after cold air sweeps in late in the week (GFS/CMC/Euro all have the look)

I ended up with a Trace

It's tough getting that high in just the right spot. If it's up over the NE, it can want to slide out too quick too, as you know. Going back to that post I made the other day, it was in the mid-80's today in South Florida....so, I was OK with where the high was located - the bigger issue to me was the subtropical ridge was putting up a strong resistance to allowing the cold air to sink south.

Just pulled an HRRR sounding for 4pm right around Greenville and it shows a very shallow warm layer at the surface and a warm nose that's maybe +0.5 C deg at 800mb

Well, we're on to the next one! EPS shows some hints/splashes of snow across the south here to back up the Op run

It really is....everything just has to fall right when it's like that. Things like, snow hard to get temps to crash and get that first layer down, snow when the sun is down, etc.

The RGEM kept showing 0.2, 0.2, 0.2 for precip, but no, I ignored it

South of a line from Chattanooga to Cape Hatteras, the radar has looked straight horrid....guess it'll get going down east NC later on, but dang. Where's the "What did we learn" thread?

Winter forecast still on track

From: https://www.wxonline.info/topics/preciptype.html "Melting snow to rain requires latent heat. This heat is taken from the surrounding air. In order to obtain substantial temperature change due to melting, it is necessary to have rather heavy amounts of precipitation falling with little or no warm advection. If this occurs, you can have heavy rain turn to heavy snow as the freezing level sinks downward due to cooling by latent heat absorption. Although this situation can occur, cases of substantial lowering of the freezing level due to melting are relatively rare because the combination of heavy precicpitation without warm air advection is rare." You may have been thinking of freezing rain (?) where there is a release of latent heat into the surrounding air when rain freezes.

Headlines - Spring put on hold / Eyewall gets hit again. It's February 1989 all over again

FYI a new thread was started for our blizzard late in the week Now go look at the end of the 12z GFS where it has our next storm to kick off March - pattern actually ain’t too bad then

burrel - I have a hard time buying a precip minimum just southeast of the Apps and a jump to the coast with this one. Just my opinion. I know we see that sometimes, but the trajectory of the precip and forcing is going to be more west to east in a continuous manner. The precip minimum and jump to the coast is more common when we have a wave approaching and crossing the Apps from a NW trajectory. Sure the eastern areas may get a precip boost, but I don't think a jump to the coast is in the offing here.

It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north. You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z. Great for the folks north of us though. Let's see what happens going forward. Need the big high pressure to come thru

12km NAM Sleet