griteater

Stepped in a fire ant mound as a kid in the late 70's beside a farm pond in south Georgia...that didn't end well...lesson learned.

Bermuda is easy to grow and loves heat, but it will not grow in shady areas...it requires full or mostly full sun. Bermuda is the #1 enemy in fescue lawns. As they saying goes, the only way to get rid of bermuda is to move (as in move to another house). You can put roundup on it, and it will still come back. Maybe Powerstroke has something for it.

Mack and Powerstroke, I didn't realize that pre-emergent was used for broadleaf weeds. Can you get that kind at Lowes or does it have to be at a specialty lawn shop? I.e. Is it part of std pre-emergent?

Cold Rain, I agree with the Pack's and Mack's of the forum, but one thing - is the spot near big trees? Turf and weeds will really struggle under the umbrella/near big trees. The trees seem to suck up not only the majority of the groundwater, but my own theory is that they suck up all of the nutrients as well. You might consider just mulching it if possible. Big trees and grass simply don't mix. This is crazy, don't we have some warm noses to analyze?

My spring allergies are in high gear (itchy eyes, etc)...started in mid-late Jan which is early for sure.

Pre-emergent is for crabgrass (and related weedy grasses). The seed for this year's crabgrass comes from last year's crabgrass plants that were in your yard (each plant produces a ton of seeds that are deposited)...or it could be blown in by wind...or come from rain runoff from a road or drainage basin. Crabgrass loves high heat and humidity and won't sprout until at least May I'd say. Now is a good time to put down pre-emergent. Bottom line: put down pre-emergent and prevent this year's crabgrass plants from 'emerging' and you won't have a big crabgrass problem next year (since this year's plants won't be present to deposit seeds for next year).

Let's see what happens at 00z franklin...if there is a big difference again and there is some wintry precip in our forum, I will log it

burrel - I'm a bit torn on this one because the Euro did have one run where it showed a good storm with icing in NC. Viewing the old models runs on TT, it looks like the GFS had roughly 4 model runs with wintry precip in the SE...but since it runs 4 times a day, it's more like 2 to 1 when comparing to the Euro. CMC also had a few runs with wintry precip....so, I'm inclined not to add it since it wasn't a locked in disparity.

Yeah, that's probably right Thanks, looks nice. Some of the highlights of my life have been going skiing out west

What's really sad is we've got the purdiest little bowling ball traversing the southern stream in a couple of days...how is that staying suppressed with no cold air in the pattern...oh the irony

Cool Burrel, got any ski pics? Flying over central Colorado in winter is pretty sweet....just a vast area of deep white, and snow choked mtns.

Just now getting around to it, but I have 2 cases in there now for this previous storm. GFS won early on at a 5 day lead time. The GFS then shifted south, and I have the UKMet as the winner at the 4 day lead time.

And GFS is going to win in case #3 above, but will fail on case #4 that I mentioned in the previous post

I'm going to need to read back through the storm thread, but I will be adding another case that popped up in the 3-4 day range where the GFS was showing runs with snow in Columbia. In terms of the wobbles that occur within the 1-2 day range, I don't have plans to document those kinds of discrepancies (just too many to track). In this thread, I'm mainly concerned with the bigger picture. Model A has a storm and Model B doesn't. Or Model A has a storm way south of Model B and they are going about it in different ways etc.

^ Brett - your pivotweather pages are awesome! Especially love the soundings with omega on the left hand side! Thanks

Thanks guys, I've added it!

All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there

Nothing screams great winter like seeing severe weather threads pop up on the SE page

Thank you and everyone else for the comments. Yes, you've identified one of my concerns which is identifying the cases to track. The target will be winter storm threats where there is an established model difference (not just a single run). For example, Euro shows a weak winter storm and the GFS shows a whopper....or, Euro shows a winter storm, but the GFS does not. We'll have to see how it goes. It won't be a perfect system. And yes, the goal would be to have this as a continuous, running thread over a multi-year time period. Could also track things like pattern predictions....i.e. GEFS shows east coast trough in 6-10 day avg, while Euro Ens is zonal....but I'm not planning to track those kinds of differences at this time.

^ Thanks all. The griteater basement is prepared to go ahead and early call this another win for the GFS. It may be quiet in here in the upcoming weeks.

We had some discussion on this last week, but I'm opening up this thread to track model performance for southeast winter storm threats. As the case list grows, we can see over time which model has the best performance in our region. Let me know (via a post in the thread) if a potential case arises that should be added. The target date range for the cases will be 2-6 days prior to the storm event. Once a case is added, it is tracked to verification date, regardless of model flip flopping. For example, let's say at Day 6, the Euro has a few runs showing a snowstorm, but the GFS does not - that case is documented. Then let's say later, at Day 3, the models flip, and the GFS shows a snowstorm and the Euro does not - the original documented case isn't changed and is tracked to verification, but potentially a new case is added for the model difference that now exists at Day 3. Here's what I've got thus far to get it started...

Some others in addition to what Tyler mentioned: College of Dupage: on any model map image, just click on the map and it will launch a sounding for that time http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ TwisterData: similar to Dupage, just click on the map - http://www.twisterdata.com/ Others for sounding or sounding data: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm http://vortex.plymouth.edu/myo/fx/raobfx.html http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/textfcstsound.html For observed soundings (not modeled): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

Gotcha. I would go sleet over frz rain, but like both

Indeed