Scott747

Should get a reading from recon shortly and then at least one more. Second mission is on the way but could be tight in getting there before landfall.

Recon is gonna find a sub 900 storm.

Intermediate at 2 eastern 1 central

It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone....

6z HAFS-B isn't quite as ridiculous as the 0z but both hurricane models are still bottoming out at around 900. Looks like the NW Caribbean is going to do its magic if it continues to get further enough W.

0z HAFS-B goes nuclear.

Fwiw - That's houses and the rebuilt elementary and middle school (Crenshaw) in Crystal Beach after Ike. All of that construction had nothing to do with Harvey and was done due to Ike.

Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision.

Because this isn't S2K. So keep it over there. You posted a bunch of S2k crap about a ridiculous low off of Florida earlier this week that had to be cleaned up. Patience is wearing thin...

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far. It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential. When it comes to the 'waters' the GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season. I

It will be another week before you should even begin to worry about what the models are showing...

It's in the middle of an erc so nailing the center is a little tricky and there can be wide variations on the pressure readings. Especially with the gradient that Milton has shown. Another recon is already nearing the storm.

Damn. What a gradient. Looks like it might be below 910 this pass.

As the thread starts heating up again try not quoting any imagery with quick reactions. If your commenting and contributing to some meaningful type of analysis, then fine. Otherwise it's going to disappear. There is already enough scrolling as it is.

We don't normally do this but we're at a point that even with a not particularly large Florida contingent here... There probably needs to be a dedicated thread for local impacts, warnings etc. independent of this and the banter thread. There will be some good info that will quickly be lost like was shared on the last page or two.

That imagery is starting to get some Haiyan vibes. Effing crazy.

Expect another special advisory.

939 on the NOAA pass.

941 on the latest pass. Still dropping like a rock.

Nasty gradient on the way in for the latest eye penetration.

That's from about 30 min ago. AF309 will be making a new pass in about 15 min.

Eye down to 10 mi. I'd guess we might get pressure down into the upper 930's on one of the upcoming passes.

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.