Stx_Thunder

This summer, at least here in South TX, is running quite similar to the 2009 summer, that I definitely remember. Which also involved a Strengthening El Niño phase (looking at CPC data), going into the fall with little clouds and rainfall until the end of August. When the 500MB high finally broke away for good down here. And no hurricanes to be found anywhere near the TX coast (which probably will be the case again this year). I see the end of August being the case for actual rainfall. As the models have been a rather disappointment lately, forecasting the break away of this TX loving furnace subtropical high. September rain and T-storms are normally a guarantee down here *every year. Regardless of the ENSO phase or any tropical storm or hurricane. So I'm not concerned about this atmospheric moisture-sapping high sticking around down here too much longer or through September. Given the ongoing, strengthening EN, I suspect with all this build up of (convectively very untapped) lower level heat content, the storms around the region could initially be quite strong when the high finally breaks away (usually off to the northwest). Which typically creates a cooling northerly/northwesterly mid/upper-level flow pattern southeast of the departing high, and potential early dipping of the jet stream into TX at the end of August or beginning of September. As was the case in 2009 and 2015. You get use to it once you've lived down here in South TX quite long enough or all your life. Despite the very persistent hot/dry summer pattern this year, June was actually the worst where a few nights, the Dew Point was staying right around 85 F during a stronger onshore flow pattern from the SE (usual direction). Which was unusual down here too as it's rare that it reaches that high any time of year. Though there has been a lot of breezy-windy days this summer. Even though I keep the indoor thermostat close to 80 most of the time, the windows were still condensating with that extremely moist Gulf surface flow. I had never seen that happen before in the summertime. Though, 70 F+ dew point for about 70% of the year on average is quite common down here around the Corpus and Brownsville area. It may have been more like 60%, 15 years ago.