I live north of Columbus in Powell/Lewis Center, pretty much in the bullseye of the Moderate circle. How much of a threat is this really? It seems like a pretty rare forecast for us and some of the forecasts I'm reading almost sound hyperbolic. One case in point from one local tv weatherman out of Lima, OH:
** SEVERE THREAT HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED FOR OHIO ON TUESDAY, APRIL 2, 2024- MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5) ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OHIO. A DAY 2 MODERATE RISK IS RARE. ***
*** POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO OUTBREAK IN OHIO- PLEASE REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO PLANS TODAY ***
Written: 2:30 PM Monday, April 1, 2024
As I profusely discussed yesterday, models have been trending toward a significantly more amplified storm system for Tuesday, and essentially every model has picked up on this. Therefore, the result is a dramatically higher severe weather threat for Ohio, including Lima, for Tuesday. This outlook is not intended to scare you, but we need to be prepared for a potentially volatile day of severe weather for Ohio.
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NEW STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK:
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- There is a MODERATE RISK (Level 4 out of 5) for much of Ohio. This includes Lima, Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus, Springfield, Urbana, Kenton, Delaware, Marysville, Chillicothe, Athens, Newark, Canton, and Zanesville.
- There is an ENHANCED RISK (Level 3 out of 5) extending about 30 miles from the Moderate Risk. This includes Celina, Van Wert, Paulding, Ottawa, Findlay, Sandusky, Cleveland, and Youngstown.
- There is a SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 out of 5) extending about 30 miles from the Enhanced Risk. This includes Defiance, Napoleon, Toledo, and Ashtabula.
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NEW POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND TRENDS:
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With a significantly stronger storm system tracking further north with a much stronger surge of low-level warmth and moisture, the stage is set for a potentially intense severe weather day across Ohio as long as you are in the warm, unstable part of the storm system. There is a potential for several tornadoes including the potential for significant (EF-2 or stronger intensity) and long-tracked (tracking over 20 miles) tornadoes. Parameters are suggesting that a tornado outbreak will be possible. Additionally, large to very large hail (possibly up to the size of tennis balls to baseballs) and destructive damaging winds (potentially 70 to 80 mph). This is a potentially dangerous situation.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a rare 15% significant tornado contour for much of Ohio. This is not issued every year in Ohio and should stress that we should take this threat seriously. Also, large hail and damaging winds contours are at 30% significant, which are both quite high, too.