thunderman

From a HAM radio friend of mine just a few moments ago:

 

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N5OEP just checked in, he is with NO Homeland Security Emergency Preparedness with no power in downtown in NO, pumps near capacity but working well. Very heavy winds and torrential rain, guessing wind at 100 mph, had 148 mph earlier before the gage was destroyed

Still 90% with 8PM outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Recent satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure 
located about 250 miles northeast of Bermuda is well-defined and is
gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics. In addition, 
earlier satellite-derived wind data revealed that the system is
producing gale-force winds. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased slightly over the past several hours. If that 
trend continues, it would result in advisories being initiated on
the system later tonight or Saturday morning while it moves slowly
westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.  The  
low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile 
environment by Saturday night or Sunday and the system’s development 
chances diminish after that time. Additional information on this 
low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the 
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a 
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Will have to see how this tracks.  Could be very memorable ice event for parts of central Virginia and the southern Shenandoah valley.  zr with temps in the 20s is bad news.

Nice imagery from CIRA this evening!

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

The icon sucks right?


.

It's slightly better than the Jamaican.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

here’s a screenshot from the model menu.  I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data.  Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part.  I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have.

The Euro soundings is almost a deal breaker for me.

Slightly offtopic, but how does Weatherbell compare to Pivotal?  I cannot find a list of what plots Weatherbell provides.

Gotta post the weenie map

10 minutes ago, thunderman said:

There used to be a site that you could view the top 10 analogs in detail (upper air, surface, measured snowfall, etc.).  Does anyone remember what I am referring too? If so , do you have a link?

Found it.

CIPS Historical Analog Guidance (slu.edu)

There used to be a site that you could view the top 10 analogs in detail (upper air, surface, measured snowfall, etc.).  Does anyone remember what I am referring too? If so , do you have a link?

Made it down to 32/29 last night and squeaked out a trace of ice.  33/32 now with light rain falling.

Higher elevations of the Blue Ridge hanging onto upper 20s in some spots.  Going to be a beautiful sight for anyone brave enough to travel over them this evening.  I suspect Skyline Drive will be shut down for quite sometime after this :/

One thing I will point out.  Lower QPF isn't necessarily bad with borderline surface temps.  With borderline temps, light QPF will usually slick things up more than heavier QPF.

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise.  Just one problem....no precip 

Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. 

CHO even gets in on the ice.

LWX has watches up for the extreme western zones.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral-
143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
  up to one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany
  Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

EC 925mb trends

12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface.  A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor.

Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event.  Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day.  Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today.

May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg.

00z EC start New Years Day event off as zr across most of northern VA.

12z EC still liking the ice threat for western folks.

Model comparison for reference:

EC trends:

Not much change that I can see at a quick glance of the GFS and Canadian for the New Years event.

Canadian zr QPF eye candy for extreme western zones:

Canadian is definitely the most bullish right now.  Verbatim, would be a significant ice event for western zones.

Ice threat for western areas seems to be increasing ... although brief in duration.  EC op has freezing rain extending well into VA now along I-81.

Going to be a brutal cold for us western folks in the AM.

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, unfortunately the EPS wasn’t biting on the OP’s idea.  I counted a handful of solutions that suggested something even close to what the OP was depicting.

Neither was the GEFS

Nice burst of snow here now in Elkton.  Good dendrites.  Wouldn't be surprised to see someone get an inch out of this.

Euro just slightly warmer at h85 through 12z