jshetley

I know I'm right at least about the next 10 days. Someone on the other board started a thread dedicated to it, LOL. That was the kiss of death for this storm.

Feb is our month. Jan will go by with little if any winter weather outside of the mountains.

11 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

e3 would make this thread no longer necessary 

It'll be e8 on that map that verifies though. 

The 18z GFS is well on its way to coming back to reality with both precip and temps. When day 16 on this model actually arrives, no one outside of the mountains will have had significant winter weather here in the southeast. Temps will not go below 25 either outside of the mountains and 1 inch or less total precip will have fallen. Reality will be 60-70 or warmer for highs and around 50 for lows.

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

You should come back in Feb and take a huge victory lap...unless you run out of gas on the last lap!

If I'm right we will like Feb though, especially in NC and SC. I think the CAD areas get nailed around mid Feb with an icestorm that could rival the Dec 2002 and Dec 2005 icestorms. One of the really cold, cold snaps could reach us too in early Feb.

Looks like I was right don't it. Jan is done. Have to wait until Feb.

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Webberweather, is basically saying signs are pointing to a mild February 

Yeah I saw that on the other board. He is saying Feb would be very warm and wet just like 1990. I'd take that in a heartbeat. That month featured major flooding in parts of GA and AL and a severe weather outbreak  over much of the southeast.

1 hour ago, No snow for you said:

I don't understand the panic. I believe we talked about this last year that the oceans were flipping and we would see a -PNA this year which would lead to a tough winter. We can see winter weather in this pattern but it makes it tougher. I believe we will see a similar pattern next winter as well before getting to a +PNA in the 18 19 winter. 

 

Btw I believe we will see the PNA move neutral to positive in late January into parts of February that will give us our best chances to see winter weather. 

Feb is certainly our best chance this year. The CAD areas could become very icy sometime in Feb.

2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

I'm sure the mountains will get there share of snow before the season is over, we just need you guys to drop a few crumbs down to us.

GSP says a very nice northwest flow event is coming later this week up there. 1-2 inches in the usual areas.