jshetley

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Wrong! Hammering Pickens and Oconee, as per usual

At least you have had a little sleet twice this winter. Not so over here. We got completely shut out in 2012 and that may be going to happen again this winter. I'm ready for severe storms and heavy rain now. Maybe Feb and March will be like they were in 1990. 

10 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

As irritated as I am with this damn cold rain in Wake County I am happy for the posters in Atlanta, NW GA and NW SC.  They always seem to get left out of the fun so I'm glad they are finally getting some snow.  That being said, posters in the Triad need to stop being so dang greedy with their snow!  Heck, I'd be thrilled with a sleet pellet right now!

It RAIN in northwest SC though and NOT snow. Not snow in Atlanta either.

GSP about to give up too in the majority of the upstate. Just like I figured all the way back to last night, this will not work out. They still think the I-85 corridor will be ok, but I have my doubt about that too. Maybe in Feb here, because I am 100% certain the rest of this month is done. I'd like to see 80 degree temps come back if we can't get snow.

Our temp is RISING where I am. This is done in SC outside of the mountains. Probably no sleet either, just rain south of highway 11 from here on out.

Hopefully after this poor excuse for a storm we go into the 70's next week and STAY there for at least 3 weeks.

4 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

It is 43 here and now I read the 925's are too warm. All I will say to that is "nailed it". Never trust the models where the cold has to come over the mountains. 

If we had the cold air in place and a damming high up in PA or NY we would be getting buried in snow or sleet tonight and the midlands of SC would probably get a major icestorm. If this system was just 6-10 hours slower, we would all probably do much better. That's how areas in NE NC will get their snow tomorrow when the cold air pours in, but the moisture will be gone by then west of I-77.

On to Feb for most of us. This one is for the mountains and west. A lot now like early April 1987 when Birmingham AL got 9 inches of snow, while ATL, GSP, and CLT got rain.

We are missing 2 VERY IMPORTANT things now. 

1. The cold air is NOT here in place.

2. No CAD this time.

If they were here this would be a much bigger deal. Having to depend on cold air crossing the mountains in time is a losing game. 

Maybe folks should listen to me more. This storm is done for the GSP metro along with Charlotte and Raleigh. Dec 2009 it is. 

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Welcome back! We've missed your insight!

I know it's the NAM, but I just have a feeling it has the right idea. The cold air is going to have a very hard time crossing the mountains I'm afraid. You are set though if you are in Asheville, Hickory, the Triad in NC and on up into VA. Those areas get 4-8 inches of snow. Basically if you got snow just before Christmas in Dec 2009 you'll get snow tonight. If you got rain then, you'll get rain tonight.

The new NAM says you need to be north of I-85 in SC to see snow. This is going to turn into a Dec 2009 like event that leaves the GSP and CLT metro areas with only rain, right along with Atlanta and Athens in GA. Also Raleigh NC. Hopefully  we get something in Feb for SC and GA.

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not before my 40 and rain!

I have a feeling rain is about all we get. It's going to reach near 50 at GSP in my opinion and we will never recover from that. Having to get cold air in during the storm almost never works out. The only time it did is March 2009.

1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

 

Whatevs. That was a fantastic read this morning. I appreciate the humanity and personality put into the AFD. You can tell the forecaster actually enjoys her job. In addition, there was nothing "unprofessional" in what she wrote. Her style may not have been your preference (though I can't fathom why you would take issue with someone who apparently shares our entire board's fondness for winter weather), but she broke no unwritten rules. Lighten up, Francis.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk
 

 

1000% agree with all of this. Our forecast area is fortunate to have her here. That afd was fantastic.

Watch this thing go WAY north now and give only rain from the TN-KY and NC-VA line and south. My call for nothing in Jan may just stand yet.

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think it convective feedback issues. We saw some big storms along the Gulf that has robbed moisture from moving further north.

Yep that and the fact that the CAD is overperforming. Rain has been drying up at the GA SC line all day until just the last couple of hours because of that. Most of Al and GA have had tons of rain, but we will not be getting nearly as much. If this trend continues, the drought will become centered over the Carolinas as time goes on.

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, the radar looks anemic!

We are going to get maybe .75 of rain for a storm total of 1.75, but models showed up to 3-4 over upstate SC which we are not going to get. And another thing. When will the NWS ever learn how to forecast CAD. This one was supposed to be weakening tonight, but is getting stronger and heading back to the south.

Even the rain predicted for tonight is not looking to last nearly as long as forecast over NC and SC. Hopefully this isn't the start of trend towards much drier, but I'm afraid it could very well be. Hopefully it'll at least be warm if it has to be dry. Cold and dry is just awful.

Starting to look my Jan forecast is going to hold up. This thing will trend into a sunny weekend before it is over. 

Yeah we need the Euro to come on board. If it does and shows amounts like the GFS does, this board will go nuts in about 2-2.5 hours.

Well if the 12z GFS comes even close to verifying I'm going to look a fool for my Jan forecast. 

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My money is on whichever gives me rain! That solution WOW showed, about what we don't want to happen, to screw up our snow, book it!

I'll take all the rain I can get. By the way, I'm not sure we ever get another storm like the 1988 snowstorm. For upstate SC that one will never be topped. For all talk about the 1993 superstorm, that only dropped about 2-3 inches of snow here. The northwest half of this board would meltdown for sure if we got a repeat of Jan 24-25 2000 though. That one dropped right at 12 inches of snow here, while most of the GSP metro only had light snow of flurries that didn't stick. The posters from Raleigh would go crazy though.

43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Where's Shetley??

Watching Knight Rider.

5 minutes ago, JoshM said:

The new guy started a storm thread, and the forum has already broke. A JINX I TELL YOU!!!

Yep it's jinxed. Even I know not to start a thread about a winter storm this soon.

We have no need for bitter cold without precip. Getting down to 20-25 is enough. Anything lower and with dry weather is useless.

1 hour ago, No snow for you said:

Euro weeklies say if we don't score next weekend, mid February will be our next shot at the earliest. 

 

Exactly what i have been saying. Since next weekends' threat seems to be gone mid Feb it is.