sankaty

The key takeaway for me from the Euro is that the minimum QPF for the whole states of CT and MA is about 1.7".  I'm sure the relative mins/maxes will shift around, but if large portions of SNE get much less than 1" QPF, that would be a monumental failure of the Euro.  I'm not banking on it.

Why not? its been pretty consistent. Im concerned. 

The Euro has been just as consistent.  I'm a proud Euro hugger.  It's not perfect, but it's very rarely that wrong.

Significant tick east on the 18z rgem.  Not buying it.

Think most of us get paranoid right before the event when a sucker hole is likely. It's one thing to have a storm whiff one way or another...but when everyone around you gets nailed and you can't manage persistent heavy snow, it's the worst IMO. We've all been there. But if you get lucky things break your way. I remember being paranoid about getting sucker holed in the Feb 2013 storm...most of the models had this area in the screw zone...I was pretty pessimistic up until the deform band moved ashore from LI around 5-6pm. 30" later...  

I remember this well.  

The CRV had a really bad run of luck between about 2003-2010 where we would always be on the low end of storm totals, and I became convinced (despite Ryan's assurances) that there was something about this area (downsloping, etc). that just made it a snow hole.  That completely turned around in Jan 2011, and we've been doing really well for most storms since then, Nemo especially.

The downsloping effect can be real, but it's only an issue for certain kinds of storms, and it doesn't come up that much.

I've become pretty well convinced that models just don't yet have the skill to resolve the meso features that create jackpots and snow holes during big storms.  They'll set up somewhere, but I try not to sweat the details of each model run, and reality always offers many surprises.