SnoSki14
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If that's true then we may see 80 in Jan and widespread early flowering -
Very weak sauce. To be expected with limited instability and weak lapse rates
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It increases volatility. When you combine deconstructive indices together there's no one size fits all analog. I think it would ballsy and delusional to forecast a cold winter. That doesn't mean 1-2 major snow events are off the table either. -
That is the most likely scenario as warming continues in this region. Notice it's a lot of the over the top warming with tons of onshore flow underneath.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-PDO this year as well -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
What was your forecast for last winter? -
October will be another blowtorch. The whole CONUS is on fire
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Looks very mild overall for the entire US with the weekend chill sort of a blip in the warm pattern. The onshore flow and coastal low could blunt highs but should still be plenty warm.
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That slowdown is what's causing the energy to get left behind and potentially become an ocean storn in the onshore flow environment. Don't know what, if any impacts will result from this but another coastal storm wouldn't surprise me.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Definitely will see tons of volatility but that doesn't mean snow either. We could have powerful, wet systems though if any arctic air gets involved then maybe. -
Lock that in for winter
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Very warm feel today and humid too.
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Mod/heavy near New Brunswick. Looks like a good slog of it too. Quite gusty as well
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There's not enough time for substantial weakening.
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We have about 8-9 hours til landfall. So it's a race against time with the shear. The storm has done a remarkable job fighting it off. No doubt the very warm, undisturbed gulf and jet stream alignment helped big time.

