RUNNAWAYICEBERG

They had to cut back on those insane widespread 24-36" amounts, but this is still diesel.

Euro ticked east. Now east models tick west. We have growing consensus.

yea buddy, here we go. I'm up for the day already, let's do this.

Yea their western zones into nyc will be cutting it close. Very tough call.

Im still uneasy for my bro and mom back home in NJ but I cant complain about the euro for my yard. Regardless, entire SNE is crushed, awesome.

I should have stuck to my guns, fok me. I'm too emotional today. Life sucks except for THIS!!!!

Im so confused. Fokin amateurs doing pbp pissing me off.

Does it crush NYC or not?

Where is the banding sig ? or is it more like ukie with the cbb?

One more piece of guidance and it's a chip shot field goal.

Good call by you though. You saw it coming and I neglected to. But lets wait 10 more mins.....

Someone knowledgeable do euro pbp please...

DT UPDATE THE SHIFT EAST REAL OR NOT? right NOW my Model of choice is the RGEM --high resolution shore range Canadian model Quite frankly I don't know. For those of us who are convinced that the shift east is the REAL deal may I remind you of some of the recent flaws / busts of the NAM GFS Just within this particular event some of these models which are now shifting east with the Low and the heaviest snow have also on a few mode runs showed huge snow mounts close to what the European model was showing. So let's not say this as a case where the GFS has never showed huge snow amounts in NYC / NJ or Philly because that is not true. It is safe to say that the GFS has not had as much snow as the European... But to argue that the GFS model has never had as much knows the European is just well wrong. If you take a look of the temperatures in and around the VA MD you wIll see the temperatures are much too warm to support snow. at 11pm DCA is 46. Even Winchester is 37 with dew point fo 32. The HRRR (high resolution shore range model) has precipitation going over snow around 4AM in Northwest a AND 6AM in dca. It only snow in DCA fpor a few houts but it snows pretty good over the northwest 25% of VA central and Western Maryland into at least Noon. So those areas could in fact the actually get 4 inches of snow... but NOT DC and the immediate metro area. With regard to the issue of huge snow amounts in Philly NJ and NYC and interior se NY... Obviously the issue has to do with where does the main ocean low develop? The early Monday morning models are now showing a much more east track and that is entirely possible. However it is not at all certain and perhaps the European track might be correct after all. So if we take down the big snow amounts too far and it turns out that these short range models are too far to the east ...we end up with another complication in this difficult forecast ! Looking at the latest actual upper air data and soundings I am inclined to shift things more to the east and lower the snow mounts in Philly NJ and NYC. I do this not because of the weather models per se but I am noticing that the Friday night Saturday Low from two days ago ....which was supposed to move up into southeastern Canada and become a 50 / 50 Low ....has fallen apart and is much weaker than some of the data had suggested yesterday. This in turn means that the system coming off the coast of the Middle Atlantic states on Monday can swing further out into the Atlantic and this may be what some of the short range models are seeing a more east track. As I have said many times before for a Middle Atlantic snowstorm -- not new England --you need ideally a -AO... a -NAO and 50 / 50 low. The AO is only neutral and the 50/50 Low has fallen apart.

BDR please Steve.

Tough cuz I made a bold call for my bro and my mom back home in NJ for this which is why I practically jumped off the ledge when gfs confirmed the later capture. I was hoping this would give them some comfort for a day. Oh well, Im still feeling OK for my backyard though. 12-18" is still solid just not historic. anyway, good luck!

I'll whine about it all day long until im covered again. Going through a tough time in my life with dad not doing well, I foking need this.

wait 45mins before you do. I feel turrable for you guys back in my old stomping grounds though.

Good post. you're right.

Yea I can't wait for obs and measurements. I want to see 40" totals somewhere.

GGEM destroys. You guys out east making a run at an all timer.

So it sucking subsidence...but your right, they dont happen often which is why the stakes are high. I'm gonna bust big time for my brother out in NJ, can I feel a little pain for him?

Nah, my call for NJ/NYC. My brother lives in Hunterdon county and I'm gonna bust big there apparently.

I'm folding early....If euro holds, I'll be shocked.

Man, I'm so emotionally invested....Euro is all alone.