RUNNAWAYICEBERG

how's it look for west of the CT River?

Euro did cave towards eastern guidance last night and today. Hopefully it stays right there tonighT tho7gh.

Bonkers.

Nam went west, gfs stayed about same.

Congrats eastern folks, this is an all timer for you guys out there. Hope I see 40" amounts there.

I've kneeled down before it last night...I'm on my knees praying to it Today.

Still looks like I get in on western band on gfs, not As bad as I thought for sw ct.

I Don't trust gfs with big systems. See nemo.

I expect euro to tick NE with the stall but still be west of rgem. I think euro/rgem blend is the way to go.

Rgem has been consistent, you have to go with it...it's not good for my hood but I call it like I see it

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY... NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH JUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY SNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT FAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH INLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE BANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

They had to cut back on those insane widespread 24-36" amounts, but this is still diesel.

Euro ticked east. Now east models tick west. We have growing consensus.

yea buddy, here we go. I'm up for the day already, let's do this.

Yea their western zones into nyc will be cutting it close. Very tough call.

Im still uneasy for my bro and mom back home in NJ but I cant complain about the euro for my yard. Regardless, entire SNE is crushed, awesome.

I should have stuck to my guns, fok me. I'm too emotional today. Life sucks except for THIS!!!!

Im so confused. Fokin amateurs doing pbp pissing me off.

Does it crush NYC or not?

Where is the banding sig ? or is it more like ukie with the cbb?

One more piece of guidance and it's a chip shot field goal.

Good call by you though. You saw it coming and I neglected to. But lets wait 10 more mins.....

Someone knowledgeable do euro pbp please...

DT UPDATE THE SHIFT EAST REAL OR NOT? right NOW my Model of choice is the RGEM --high resolution shore range Canadian model Quite frankly I don't know. For those of us who are convinced that the shift east is the REAL deal may I remind you of some of the recent flaws / busts of the NAM GFS Just within this particular event some of these models which are now shifting east with the Low and the heaviest snow have also on a few mode runs showed huge snow mounts close to what the European model was showing. So let's not say this as a case where the GFS has never showed huge snow amounts in NYC / NJ or Philly because that is not true. It is safe to say that the GFS has not had as much snow as the European... But to argue that the GFS model has never had as much knows the European is just well wrong. If you take a look of the temperatures in and around the VA MD you wIll see the temperatures are much too warm to support snow. at 11pm DCA is 46. Even Winchester is 37 with dew point fo 32. The HRRR (high resolution shore range model) has precipitation going over snow around 4AM in Northwest a AND 6AM in dca. It only snow in DCA fpor a few houts but it snows pretty good over the northwest 25% of VA central and Western Maryland into at least Noon. So those areas could in fact the actually get 4 inches of snow... but NOT DC and the immediate metro area. With regard to the issue of huge snow amounts in Philly NJ and NYC and interior se NY... Obviously the issue has to do with where does the main ocean low develop? The early Monday morning models are now showing a much more east track and that is entirely possible. However it is not at all certain and perhaps the European track might be correct after all. So if we take down the big snow amounts too far and it turns out that these short range models are too far to the east ...we end up with another complication in this difficult forecast ! Looking at the latest actual upper air data and soundings I am inclined to shift things more to the east and lower the snow mounts in Philly NJ and NYC. I do this not because of the weather models per se but I am noticing that the Friday night Saturday Low from two days ago ....which was supposed to move up into southeastern Canada and become a 50 / 50 Low ....has fallen apart and is much weaker than some of the data had suggested yesterday. This in turn means that the system coming off the coast of the Middle Atlantic states on Monday can swing further out into the Atlantic and this may be what some of the short range models are seeing a more east track. As I have said many times before for a Middle Atlantic snowstorm -- not new England --you need ideally a -AO... a -NAO and 50 / 50 low. The AO is only neutral and the 50/50 Low has fallen apart.