tarheelwx
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Posts posted by tarheelwx
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Somebody's got to say it. 00z NAM is a bit weaker with the low and the wedging is a bit stronger on Friday night.
TW
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I would have gone with 0.10” as that may be most accurate and would get more attention.
TW -
Burrel,
I think you're pretty spot on there. I liked the Euro except that I think it is missing the redevelopment off the SC coast. I think that redevelopment will reduce the surge of warm air and help lock the cad in a bit more.
TW
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Instead of a 999 over Cincinatti, you have a 1008 over Atlanta.
TW
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The low is about 6mb weaker and a bit further south (or maybe just slower?) and the hp is just a bit stronger, maybe 1mb. Definitely a trend to a colder more wintry possibility.
TW
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Yep. A little bit colder and further south and east with the cold. Not alot though.
TW
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The canadian is showing more of what I think will transpire with a low a bit further east that will transfer to the coast a bit quicker. At this time of year, I don't expect to see a surface low run up the tennesee valley as far as some models are showing. A much quicker transfer to the coast will happen (miller b style).
TW
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Just now, magpiemaniac said:
Serious question: What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday?
My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one. LOL
Some things you just don't want to risk!
TW
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Here in the triad, the CAD events so far this year have been less than impressive to say the least. I'd say within the final 48 hours of the event, surface temps if anything verifies 1 or 2 degrees warmer than modeled. We'll be dealing with different air this time - much denser and more apt to drain in.
TW
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Here's a link for GSO cobb data from the 06z GFS. It shows sleet in GSO for the big one through hour 180 which is where the data stops.
https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kgso
StnID: kgso Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 210209/0700Z 1 17004KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/0800Z 2 22003KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/0900Z 3 26004KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1000Z 4 27003KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1100Z 5 VRB00KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1200Z 6 13003KT 40.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210209/1300Z 7 VRB01KT 41.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1400Z 8 VRB02KT 43.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1500Z 9 VRB01KT 45.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1600Z 10 VRB02KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1700Z 11 VRB02KT 49.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/1800Z 12 23005KT 54.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210209/1900Z 13 26006KT 57.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/2000Z 14 25006KT 57.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/2100Z 15 26005KT 57.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/2200Z 16 25003KT 55.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210209/2300Z 17 VRB02KT 49.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0000Z 18 VRB02KT 48.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210210/0100Z 19 VRB02KT 47.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0200Z 20 VRB02KT 47.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0300Z 21 30003KT 46.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0400Z 22 36004KT 46.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0500Z 23 02005KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0600Z 24 03005KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210210/0700Z 25 04004KT 44.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0800Z 26 04005KT 44.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/0900Z 27 05004KT 43.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1000Z 28 05005KT 44.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1100Z 29 05006KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1200Z 30 05007KT 42.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210210/1300Z 31 05007KT 41.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1400Z 32 06006KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1500Z 33 06006KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1600Z 34 06006KT 40.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1700Z 35 06005KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210210/1800Z 36 05005KT 39.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210210/1900Z 37 06005KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 210210/2000Z 38 08005KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 210210/2100Z 39 09005KT 42.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 210210/2200Z 40 09004KT 41.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 210210/2300Z 41 10004KT 40.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 210211/0000Z 42 10004KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0100Z 43 11005KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0200Z 44 11004KT 39.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0300Z 45 11004KT 39.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0400Z 46 12003KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0500Z 47 13003KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0600Z 48 13003KT 40.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/0700Z 49 VRB02KT 40.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0800Z 50 VRB02KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/0900Z 51 18003KT 40.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1000Z 52 18003KT 41.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1100Z 53 18003KT 40.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1200Z 54 VRB02KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/1300Z 55 VRB01KT 41.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1400Z 56 VRB02KT 45.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1500Z 57 VRB02KT 47.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1600Z 58 VRB02KT 49.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1700Z 59 VRB02KT 51.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/1800Z 60 VRB01KT 51.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210211/1900Z 61 07004KT 51.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/2000Z 62 09003KT 50.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/2100Z 63 06006KT 49.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210211/2200Z 64 07009KT 45.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100 210211/2300Z 65 05010KT 42.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 0| 0|100 210212/0000Z 66 05009KT 41.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210212/0100Z 67 05010KT 37.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.143 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 0| 0|100 210212/0200Z 68 04010KT 36.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 0| 0|100 210212/0300Z 69 05010KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 0| 0|100 210212/0400Z 70 05009KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 0| 0|100 210212/0500Z 71 04008KT 35.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0|100 210212/0600Z 72 07010KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210212/0700Z 73 05009KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 0| 0|100 210212/0800Z 74 03009KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 0| 0|100 210212/0900Z 75 06009KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 0| 0|100 210212/1000Z 76 02010KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13 0| 0|100 210212/1100Z 77 03009KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16 0| 0|100 210212/1200Z 78 04009KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210212/1300Z 79 03011KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 1.20 0| 0|100 210212/1400Z 80 03009KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0|100 210212/1500Z 81 03009KT 31.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 210212/1600Z 82 03008KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 210212/1700Z 83 04008KT 35.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 210212/1800Z 84 04008KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210212/1900Z 85 03008KT 40.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 210212/2000Z 86 04007KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 210212/2100Z 87 04007KT 39.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210212/2200Z 88 04007KT 38.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210212/2300Z 89 04007KT 36.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0000Z 90 04008KT 36.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210213/0100Z 91 04009KT 35.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0200Z 92 05009KT 35.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0300Z 93 05009KT 34.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0400Z 94 05009KT 33.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0500Z 95 06010KT 32.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210213/0600Z 96 06009KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210213/0700Z 97 05009KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 210213/0800Z 98 05010KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.03 0| 0|100 210213/0900Z 99 05009KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.08 0| 0|100 210213/1000Z 100 05009KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.11 0| 0|100 210213/1100Z 101 04009KT 29.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.13 0| 0|100 210213/1200Z 102 04010KT 28.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.16 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210213/1300Z 103 04010KT 27.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.18 0| 0|100 210213/1400Z 104 04009KT 27.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.19 0| 0|100 210213/1500Z 105 04009KT 27.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.20 0| 0|100 210213/1600Z 106 04009KT 27.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.22 0| 0|100 210213/1700Z 107 04009KT 27.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0|100 210213/1800Z 108 04008KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210213/1900Z 109 04009KT 29.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 210213/2000Z 110 03008KT 28.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 210213/2100Z 111 06009KT 28.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 210213/2200Z 112 05009KT 28.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 210213/2300Z 113 03007KT 28.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.22 0| 0| 0 210214/0000Z 114 04008KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210214/0100Z 115 03008KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210214/0200Z 116 04006KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210214/0300Z 117 04007KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210214/0400Z 118 05010KT 28.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.055 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.06 0| 0|100 210214/0500Z 119 05008KT 29.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.13 0| 0|100 210214/0600Z 120 04005KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.037 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.16 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210214/0900Z 123 02007KT 31.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.078 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.24 0| 0|100 210214/1200Z 126 03005KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.25 0| 0|100 210214/1500Z 129 VRB01KT 37.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0|100 210214/1800Z 132 24006KT 44.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 210214/2100Z 135 26008KT 48.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 210215/0000Z 138 30005KT 42.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210215/0300Z 141 31009KT 35.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 210215/0600Z 144 33007KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 210215/0900Z 147 01003KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.26 0| 0| 0 210215/1200Z 150 04004KT 22.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210215/1500Z 153 02005KT 29.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210215/1800Z 156 03004KT 37.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210215/2100Z 159 06004KT 38.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210216/0000Z 162 07007KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210216/0300Z 165 04005KT 30.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 210216/0600Z 168 04008KT 30.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02 0| 0|100 210216/0900Z 171 05009KT 26.9F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03 0| 27| 73 210216/1200Z 174 04010KT 22.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.078 0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.03|| 0.11 0|100| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210216/1500Z 177 06011KT 20.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.37|| 0.00|| 0.184 0:1| 0.0|| 0.53|| 0.03|| 0.29 0| 99| 1 210216/1800Z 180 03010KT 22.7F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.163 0:1| 0.0|| 0.86|| 0.03|| 0.45 0|100| 0 ============================================================================================================================
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No real trend on the 18z RGEM. I'd say less of a winter storm over northern NC that run.
TW
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I think the one common trend this winter has been to colder in the 3-5 day range (as the models pick up on the persistent blocking), but then things seem to more or less settle in within 72 hours. I suspect most trending will be done by end of day tomorrow.
Beyond 120 hours, we should just take the models as showing us a range of potential and nothing more.
TW
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1
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I think strength of hp can help offset not being in an ideal location, and location can help offset not having a nice strong hp. A really strong high in the ideal position makes for great memories.
TW
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1
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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:
1034 is more than enough for freezing rain. I’ve seen significant events with weaker highs.
Totally agree here. I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much).
TW
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This is anomalous cold air, even for the dead of winter. The models will have a hard time handling such dense cold air. I expect to see the models trend much colder as move through this week. I think the models have trended colder in the 3-5 day range for the last 60 days. The problem until now has been that there's been little cold air to work with. The cold air coming now will be a whole different animal. Tapping regions with dew points in the teens (since back in early December) is totally different than tapping regions with dew points below zero.
I think if nothing else, the dense nature of the cold air will lead to alot of ice, and not just in CAD areas.
TW
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4
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I like the looks through 126
TW
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Rain and 45 in Colfax.
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It seems to me that the colder the air to our north, the more likely it is to drain down the east side of the mountains. Above average cold air doesn''t really get the job done unless the high is ideally centered roughly over NY.
Odds are improving that we might get one of both of those later next week.
TW
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Shades of last Saturday.
TW-
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Just for what it’s worth, I’ve had 2 ice events this year and neither really trended colder. As a matter of fact, both pretty much underperformed.
TW -
I hope we all get a foot. However, we don’t get good snows when it’s 50 degrees just hours before the precip starts. Exceptions are when we have a cold air mass pressing in, and that is not the case tonight. I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect tonight will be similar to last weekend.
TW -
Caution: Wild short term swings ahead. Don’t drink the HRRR cool aid.
TW-
4
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Might be suppression city.
TW -
Point and click for Colfax now has 1-2” of snow and sleet.
TW
Ice/Snow threat Friday-Sunday
in Southeastern States
Posted
Very interesting that the NAM shows the wedge retreating around daybreak on Saturday, but then digging back in as the morning wears on. I"m not sure I've ever seen that. Maybe the low is transferring to the coast and negating the surge of warm air?
TW