tarheelwx

Despite the SSWE and the ensembles, the models pretty much show the pattern of the last 2 months to continue for the next 10 to even 15 days.  At this point, I’d just as soon move on into spring rather than have a massive killing freeze or a “warm” snowstorm that will hang on the leafed out trees.  
TW

The pattern has been unbelievably consistent.  What a winter out west though.  
TW

Does Larry work @ CPC?

5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

From experience in the south, a negative NAO means nothing if the Pac Jet keeps roaring.

Spot on.  
TW

Good read.  Thank you for sharing. TW

Every cold shot this winter, even the Christmas cold to an extent, was a pretty quick in and out.  The cold would become less and less on the models as we got closer to verification time, and the "cold" (what little there was) was almost immediately flushed out.  Even the cold from this past weekend only lasted 24 hours or so.  It seems the PNA is probably the most important piece of the puzzle.  Not absolutely required, but without it, you're pretty close to having to thread the needle to get any kind of winter event.  Just look at the snow maps over the next 10 days and it seems pretty obvious that pacific air is just ripping across the southern 2/3's of the country.  Until the PNA approaches neutral (or hopefully goes positive), I think we're out of luck.  A few weeks from now, even the positive PNA won't be enough for many. 

TW  

My gut tells me that unless we get a positive PNA, we’re not going to get significant cold weather - significant being cold enough to deliver a good winter storm.  I think we could have a decent stretch of be low normal temps, but just a bit below normal in March isn’t the same as  wing a bit below normal in January or the first half is February.  Having said that, I’m holding out hop until March 15th. 
TW

My blueberry bushes look like they’re ready to pop open.  They’ll probably open and then we’ll get a couple weeks of solid winter in March. 
TW

RDPS was an ice storm in the mountains and a little snow in northern Alabama.  Low was pulling north and well inland up through GA.  Just another solution out there.

TW

3 hours ago, ncskywarn said:

This would be ugly.

I'm curious what "Total ice" is since in GSO, total ice is 0.72 while zr is 1.02.  How can zr be more than the total ice unless total ice is just sleet.  Thanks for any educational feedback

TW

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

GSO Monday morning

That dog’ll hunt right there……. For zr that is. 
TW

I think the key takeaway is that precip is creeping north and west. It is also starting in such a way as to maximize opportunity for ice as far as temps are concerned.  
TW

You say a 1038 over Maine won't get it done..... for what form of precip and for who?  I would say a 1038 over Maine is plenty strong for freezing rain in CAD areas.  

TW

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure why everyone excited about ice lol.

I love any kind of wintry precip.  Unlike some that whine about sleet, I love it.  It is the absolute best for sledding, and it takes forever to melt.  As for freezing rain, it is my least favorite of the 3, but still far better than CR.  

TW

Sunday and Sunday night is looking pretty interesting at this stage.  A long ways to go on this one. 

TW

Looked like 2 storms to me.  Each of the next 2 weekends.  
TW

I agree PJ, bring 'em on!!!!  By the way, check our the massive shift on the 12z Euro with the low presure track for mid/late week.  Late Thursday night, the 00z Euro had the low over northern VT and not the 12z has it over Boone.  

TW

GFS showed 3 storms between next weekend and the following weekend. 

TW

Is that a deformation band or an upper level low that is trailing in western NC?

TW

That was a nice 18z run on the NAM.  Looking forward to seeing what the GDPS shows. 

TW

Canadian looked a fair bit colder than the others.  Had the triad in the lower 20's Friday morning and around 30 @ 7pm with precip.  Would like to see precip maps.  

TW

I vote for a thread as the potential storm for Friday/Saturday isn’t quite long range any more, and it is overwhelming the long term thread.  I’d be interested in hearing about how things are looking in the day 15-30 range. 
TW

As of now, I’d take the GFS over the Euro. It’s performing at least equal if not better than the Euro. 
TW

Since it’s that time of the year, I thought I’d find out what traditions you have for winter storms.  I’ll kick it off:

- Leaves on my yard absorb heat and help snow melt faster.  So, a day or two before accumulating snow/sleet, I mow my yard with my rear bagger mower to get all the stray leaves off the yard.  It also whacks back any long sprouting weeds that take longer to cover up.  
- Big breakfast (usually bacon and pancakes/waffles), but only after precip is falling and beginning to accumulate.  
 

What about you guys?

TW   

I’m 55. I mow my lawn before it snows mainly to clip off the tips of any weeds or long grass, but mostly to eradicate any leaves that draw heat and will cause it to melt faster.  
TW