tarheelwx

HRRR and RAP have backed off just a bit for areas around Thornton and Brighton. Probably mostly due to rain. 
TW

Thanks for the response.  My only blizzard warning was the Blizzard of '93.  We're supposed to ski @ Winter Park on Friday.  I think we take 25 south to 70 west to 40.  Think we'll be able to make it.  We have an F150 4WD.  

TW

I’m flying into Denver as we speak.  I’m from NC and have never experienced a storm on the front range.  We’re staying with my son in Thornton just a few miles east of I-25 and just inside I-470.  Models are showing anywhere from 6” to just over 20”.  AFD mentioned some occasional blizzard conditions on the Palmer divide and foothills I believe.  Can anyone tell me what the criteria for blizzard conditions is here?  Where I am in NC we need 1/8 mile visibility and I think sustained winds of 20 (maybe 25) or gusts over 35 (maybe 35).  In my 58 years, that’s only happened one. 
TW

Hopefully the trends today will pause the massive bellyachin' we were hearing this morning.  At least there still seems to be a fair amount of hope for us.

TW

Just my opinion, but the pattern after next weekend is a total crap shoot.  Next weekend is pretty much up in the air as well.  
TW

We certainly can and do get ice in NC and even further south in late winter.  However, the sweet spot for ice is earlier in the season.  Can it happen?  Yes.  But prime time for ice starts slipping (joke there) away as we move through February and into March.  At the same time, prime time for snow runs a bit later. 

TW

I think we are going to need some legit cold air.  Right now, I'm not seeing anything notable through about 2/10.  Hope I'm wrong.  I'd really like to see a storm (snow or ice, I really don't care) with temps in the 20's as opposed to a 32/33 degree slop fest.

TW

Easy to tell that the 00z and 06z runs were less then exciting.  My recollection is that DT stated he considered N NC as part of the southern mid-atlantic region.  I did a Google search for "mid atlantic region" and went to images.  Most run from VA up to NY.  However, there is certainly some variance - even TN made one map (from some doctor's group).  The first image is from Wikipedia.  So I'd say there's nothing set in stone as to where the borders for the mid atlantic region is.  However, I beleive DT has clearly stated what he refers to as the southern extent of the mid atlantic.  I'm not sure where he says the northern boundary is, but I don't really care as well. 

The further out the models forecast, the less accurate they are.  Think of the climate models from 10-15 years ago showing us embarking on a dustbowl, yet here we are being quite wet overall in the southeast over the last 5 years.  

TW

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

18Z GFS, like the 12Z, also has only ~5 truly mild to warm days in the bulk of the SE through the entire run. As a bonus, it like the 12Z has generous (~3-5”) upslope snow in W NC along the TN border.

What had looked like a long term major thaw now looks like a run of the mill thaw.  No guarantees yet thought.

TW

Just goes to show that early February is not set in stone in any way shape or form as of yet.

TW

Stark changes in the 12z GFS eh?

TW

I've had a few flakes in Colfax.  36.0. 

TW

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

If it were me, I’d shop the Avery county area. Ashe fits the distance you want but lacks the orientation and elevation to produce the best results from flow events. 
 

Here are some other areas in Watauga that will always do well and are lesser known: zionville, Matney, Sugar Grove, Vilas. 
 

If snow is truly a priority to you, I’d avoid Valle Crucis and anywhere east of Boone. 

Perfect.  That's exactly what I was looking for!

TW

I could use some input from you guys in the NC mountains.  My first grandchild is due to arrive February 5th in Boone.  My wife and I are considering buying a house up that way, but don't want to be right in Boone - but probably within 30-40 minutes of the Boone/Blowing Rock area.  What areas would you recommend in order to experience the best (snow) of NC mountain weather?  I'm thinking of which areas do really well with NW flow events as well as synoptic events.  Thanks in advance. 

TW

The upper midwest, northeast, and SE Canada should be getting a pretty good snowpack over the next couple of weeks.  

TW

Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event?

TW

To add some perspective to the above map.

The Larry storm is on the radar. 
 

TW

Light snow here in Colfax NC. 
TW

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

Couldn't agree more.  I think the operationals have done pretty decent.  The ensembles were run by Lucy this year.  

TW

The ensembles have been equally abysmal.  There have been quite a few times that folks on here doubted the warmth of the operational runs by referring back to the ensembles (which were colder) and saying that we should really be using the ensembles at that particular range.  In those cases, the warmth of the operationals won out.  

Just saying.  

TW

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals.  

So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid?  Feel like Lucy is back at it again.

TW

Where's the moisture?  Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc.

TW

Quite the change in the 12z GFS beginning late next week.

TW