winter_rules

I know nothing about that area. Can you expand upon these bolded thoughts? Both seem intriguing to me and, well, probably almost everyone.

Just the fact that they are mentioning “a dusting to half an inch” in CNY is sad. That should happen most days in a decent winter.

Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs. Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z. Is that correct?

We’re at 9° at 7:30pm down in Delaware County but it’s especially impressive to me because there is no snowcover at all. We almost always have at least an inch or two, but there isn’t even a dusting right now. Pretty impressive temps with exposed earth.

I’m happy to see it “too far East” right now. That’s gives us some breathing room for the last minute NW push….I hope.

I rarely watch any movies, but we just watched it and found it hysterical, too! On a related note, I think Leonardo DiCaprio is the best actor out there. He has played so many different roles so well over many years….this movie is another example of a new character.

I have been thinking of this for the past few years as well. Take a US map and draw a general east-west line where you expect winter to be primarily white or just hit and miss white. We happen to live JUST north of that line. I would say the NY-PA border is a good general delineation….maybe a little south of the state line due to high elevations in much of northern PA. Now add a few degrees and we’re quickly into “hit and miss” territory. Not a lot of room to give, especially if you aren’t above 1,000-1,500ft in elevation.

Quite the snow globe look outside this morning with +/-2” of wet snow stuck to everything. Should be a beautiful start to the day once the sun comes up. I’m doing my best to live in the moment and ignore the fact that we aren’t forecasted to go below freezing again until Sunday night….

Similar an hour to your East, but at least we held on to enough snow to still have 100% coverage and a white Christmas morning!

I just looked through photos from last year and it resembled a common theme from the last decade. Minimal snow before +/-2nd week of January, then it turned into a great winter that held a deep snowpack into mid-March. It’s easy to get discouraged by late December, but we still have +/-3 months of possibilities in front of us! As Joe Bastardi used to say: “Enjoy the weather. It’s the only weather you have.”

That’s ironic, because East of Binghamton it was essentially the worst Christmas Eve into Christmas we could ask for in terms of snow. We lost +/-30” of snow in about 24hrs with something like 2” of rain to help wash it away. Went to bed with rain on a diminishing snowpack, woke up to brown ground with water flowing everywhere, including through my unfinished basement.

I was thinking the same thing! I check Mammoth Mtn webcams almost daily throughout the winter. Must be an amazing place to live. Epic snowfalls followed closely by bluebird skies until the next big snowfall moves in. On a related note, I’m just noticing that our creeks and rivers are finally getting down to lower “normal” levels. They have been running very high since at least July.

As someone who cares about snowpack, the one consistent winter pattern of late is that there will not be cold and snow on December 25th. Yes, I’m hoping this post jinx’s the pattern and we can all look back and scold me for being a fool later in the month!

Down to 10° already, our lowest temp of the season thus far. +/-3” of snow on the ground, including snowpack on our southern exposure blacktop driveway and local town roads. White ground with snow showers every day since Thanksgiving. Kids made a snowman Friday and went sledding Saturday and Sunday. Sure seems like someone flipped the switch to winter around here!

I have heard that annual snowfall has tripled in that area the last few years after averaging only 1” of snow for the few years before that. Locals aren’t quite sure what caused the huge swing….

All is well. Back to classes shortly after I posted that. I’m sure that made for an interesting morning with 4-10yr olds!

Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods!

Great! Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function. Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display?

I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out. We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here!

I would have expected to see more recent years on that list, based on similar lists for other months/seasons that seem to indicate recent warming trends. That list is very well spaced out from 1879 through 2017. Of course 2021 could end up on there soon which is very close to 2017.

I really don’t get how they can proclaim these mandates “to protect people’s health”, when it directly causes many already understaffed medical facilities to lose a large percentage of their staff. The current requirement is directly causing an immediate public health crisis, in an effort to avoid a possible, but increasingly unlikely public health crisis. It seems like a lot of people are really wrapped into a really strong fear of this thing. I think everybody would do themselves a service to take a week off from all forms of media and go hiking, apple picking, golfing, visit friends, etc and see that the world is still turning and maybe they shouldn’t still be trying to shut the world down over this thing….

I’m hoping it is an indication of a clipper pattern where some pop off the coast, and the large scale model just can’t pick up on the localized lake effect events that follow each clipper….

If there is one thing I have learned in my time, it is that the vast majority of people are selfish hypocrites. Doesn’t matter “which side” of politics they claim to support. Case in point: We are working on a long dead end private gravel road on a lake. Nearly everyone is very wealthy. One place near the middle of the road has BLM and rainbow flags flying out front. White seemingly “traditional” family unit. Property owners along the road pay into a common fund to maintain the shared private road. They buy a load or two of crusher run periodically and a few owners take turns with their compact tractors improving the road. Everyone contributes annually except the guy with the “inclusive” flags out front who has never contributed. Funny how that works.

While healthcare is the most critical industry that is seeing this, this is also playing out for at least teaching, construction, and engineering in upstate NY. Good replacements just don’t exist in these areas. Our tiny rural school is basically hiring anyone with a warm body. This is a huge swing of the pendulum from 13 years ago when it was very difficult to find an elementary teaching job. My construction/engineering industry has been struggling for the past 15+ years to find people who want to work, not to mention know how to build anything. This will lead to wage growth, but it’s so widespread it’s going to lead to significant inflation, too.

1) I really appreciate your general model updates and maps that you regularly provide. 2) As ‘cny rider’ pointed out, above average late-Sept into October makes for some very enjoyable fall weather.