Volcanic Winter

Woke up early to a literal NAM nuke on Toms River, which feels like a fever dream. Illustrates how much any westward shift at this point can up the ante for us.

I've been expecting 12-18 or so, but perhaps I can be bribed upward if that NAM keeps insisting....

Trying to reach Long Island after the storm.

I feel titilated. 

I really would love more of the meteorologists here to chime in today.

Forky-san, I need your prophetic guidance!

With that said, certainly very aware how busy they are. 

Any chance the models are underestimating the effect of the SSTs? I can't logically offer anything on why they would, but they are anomalously high this year. Lots of energy. 

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The gfs has been rock solid.  It's not backing down. That upgrade must've really worked wonders

If it's correct. Are you going to stake on it? Why aren't the pros in terms of snow forecasts? Would be no watches  anywhere in  the area even for me.

With respect, this is too volatile to just conclude the GFS is right. And yet, it absolutely could prove to be. Crazy times. 

This is extremely volatile especially with the precarious set up. Maybe the GFS has the best solution, maybe its slightly underestimating. I don't feel confident either way. 

If we all band together can we form a spirit bomb and throw it into the trough, Goku style?

1 minute ago, larrye said:

Well, let me ask you a dumb question then. What good is an improvement at the upper levels if there isn't any corresponding improvement at the surface? Doesn't the surface ultimately reflect the QPF? Seriously, set me straight.

There are stages of interactions that lead to the surface depiction. If one of the earlier and more crucial stages is showing a more favorable look than before above the surface, going forward it could lead to more significant changes downstream even if the current run doesn't show it yet. 

Atleast that would be my ELI5 understanding. 

Next run:

GFS coastal bomb with two feet totals

Euro: Iceland storm. Dusting to 1 inch here. 

Even though temps moderate down by me we can still get very cold. The low at my house for this January is 6. And we tend to be in a prime spot for nor'easters of this nature. I'd still rather live north and will move north someday, but I definitely don't hate this location relative to big storm potential. 

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only if you are now in Ocean County - not Union

Sorry, live in Ocean work in Union. 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Now everyone definitely thinks a big snowstorm is on the way. I understand it's their job but maybe don't put out numbers just yet.

You have to, man. Seriously.

Respectfully, you can't drop a bomb on people at the last minute in an area with millions and millions of people. 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

no worries here in NJ - no watches

I'm under one for 6-12. 

Ignoring the GFS, and the variance of all other models over the last 24 hours to me suggests difficulty in the placing and evolution of the low. And that means chances still for more or less favorable outcomes. 

I think this one is going down to the wire. Could be wrong and a better consensus forms by this evening. 

Got down to 9 here in western inland Toms River. Good bit colder than official forecasted low. 

Yeah apparently the GFS is playing checkers with that data.

(and hopefully not 4D chess)

6 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

Glad to see Godzilla came back... When you lose Godzilla... It's game over...

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I just woke my wife up bursting out a cackle. Damn you.

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So Nam, Rgem, Cmc, Icon, Jma came west and GFS gave a snowstorm to Newfoundland. 

Someone should call Iceland and let them know the GFS found a storm for them.

6 minutes ago, jaysoner said:

I'm a lurker here and not as well versed in meteorology as most of you, but it's still striking, the mental acrobatics I see from some people doing in order to convince themselves of a far rosier nor'easter scenario than what's likely. General weather pattern, Teleconnections, statistics and history, previous and recent model performance especially in the context of other models' output, are ignored and some people end up with their hopes dashed.

For instance, last night I saw someone here post a detailed wishcast Which called for 24-36" for NYC/NENJ AND 24-48" LI. I understand the urge to fantasize but it's good temper your expectations.

Have some fun. This should be fun and miserable at the same time producing its own sort of masochistic pleasure. This place is like 50 Shades of Weather, and I'm here for it.

5 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

There was a legitimate chance. But should have just said that. A potential storm that would need to be watched. They immediately started saying huge winter storm . Once people hear huge it's over

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You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential.

Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm.

I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday.

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We had a lot of blocking that winter and managed 3 actual KU/ big events, though they were not all in the same areas; I got about 32 Boxing Day, 9 during the one that mostly affected CT, and 19 a few weeks later. Then it was over by then end of Jan.

Boxing Day was my favorite storm of all time, and I was a kid for 96. Still like my memories of 2010 best out of all the storms I've seen here in NJ the past 30 years. Was in North Brunswick at the time.

I'm taking a break. Some of you should, too. Clear mind, clear thoughts. Refresh and come back to it later. Along with what was posted about the Tweet from Mike Masco I've read some about this being an anomalous run of the Euro that flubbed positioning a bit. 

I'd say room for a bit of optimism. 

See you hotdogs later. 

Anyone have a read on what professional forecasters are saying at this juncture, if anything? Can't dig too deep while at work. Just enough time to relentlessly refresh this thread lol. 

Most people have no concept of the extreme volatility AGW will force into the climate system.