HurricaneJosh

Seriously! Sounds like an interesting task you have to do. If you want any inputs Re: worst-case hurricane conditions at any location, let me know. I'm essentially a walking almanac of the NHC's ongoing reassessment of historic storms-- which ties directly into the question of what each location can expect to receive. Sorry to go OT...

Yeah, we were talking about this above. The highest official estimate right now is the "greater than 200 mph"-- however, reputable sources were suggesting instantaneous winds up to 225-250 mph. But it's unclear 1) whether that will be at some point considered official and 2) whether instantaneous winds would count, as a tornado is rated as per the max estimated 3-sec gust.

Wow. Well, don't be too hard on yourself. It was not an easy storm to warn for, given how fast it developed and moved. I'm sure y'all did the very best you could. Thanks for this very frank reflection on it, and best of luck as you rebuild.

I hear ya. I'd just like to think that, theoretically, there's some consistency in the ratings just because of 1) a shared and well-documented methodology and 2) sometimes it's the same people reviewing these major events-- i.e., the super-elite survey dudes who really specialize in this. But, yeah, with 'canes we are lucky. Sure, the reanalysis estimates for early-20th-century cyclones probably have plenty of error-- but at least we know the analysis techniques are being applied consistently across samples by the same committee of people.

Hmmm. Do you think they'll settle on a specific value at some point?

I admit I have a real fetish for the numbers. You know me too well.

Is that the same as "greater than 210 mph"? Have they settled on an official peak value for Joplin yet?

Wow-- winds greater than 210 mph. That's the highest EF scale assessment I've seen yet. Greensburg and Parkersburg were both 205 mph.

Back to the meteorological aspects (sorry!)... Do y'all know when the Springfield NWS office plans to release the complete, detailed survey and official max wind estimate? How long does it usually take after a big event like this? I'm just very curious to hear the final metrics with regard to intensity, size, etc.

No. No, I can't, honestly. I also can't imagine a huge neighborhood reduced to rubble in two minutes. It's all very surreal. This is the truly ugly side of this thing which so fascinates all of us here. These are really upsetting stories-- I almost wish I didn't read them. You might find that you're having "survivor's guilt", which sometimes happens to people after catastrophes like this. It's completely normal, but if you find that you're having trouble with it, you can perhaps talk to someone. There's nothing wrong with that.

Well, JoMo can look at it philosophically. He's a weather dude and he experienced firsthand what I'm convinced is one of the most important American weather events of then past century. I really think this is up there historically. It's a truly chart-smashing sort of event. This will be a benchmark event that's referred to and compared to in countless discussions and media stories 50 and 100 years from now.

Ah, OK. That makes sense. Thanks. So you were in the yellow zone but you feel like you had EF0? Even that, though. D*mn. It's just nuts how close it passed to you-- maybe the strongest tornado in modern U.S. history. You must be having serious gratitude, dude.

Wow. That is just crazy. I can see how these places become unrecognizable to you. Without even the trees, there are just about zero visual cues to help you make the connection. I noticed on the contour map-- the one we were discussing so vigorously this morning-- that the tornado passed just S of downtown and might have grazed it. Did the downtown area have any damage from inflow winds or anything?

That makes more sense. So you were in the yellow area? Wow-- awful close, dude. I think you're right, but how else can we compare historic events? Or are you saying we can't? Agreed. But the trend since the early 1970s has been to lower estimates down from the previous nuttiness-- so an estimate of 250 mph sounds weird. P.S. When I was in grade school-- in the late 1970s-- textbooks still said that winds in tornadoes reached 400-600 mph. I kid you not.

The official estimated max winds in Greensburg and Parkersburg-New Hartford were 205 mph. Where did you get those higher values? I agree with you-- that 225 mph seems like a more reality-based value for Joplin, simply because the higher value (250 mph) would be a whopping 25% higher than other EF5s-- something which is hard to believe. P.S. Good point-- that these are simply estimates. Lord knows how accurate they really are. I'm sure there's a wide error range when talking winds this high.

Yeah, the death toll is bizarre in light of these other events-- especially Topeka, which rammed through downtown and killed less than 20 people! Curiouser and curiouser, this one.

Thanks, Tony. Yeah, I've been wondering about the 250 mph estimate. If I read correctly, they described the speed as "instantaneous" or something like that, which lead me to believe that the 3-sec value (upon which the EF scale is based) would be lower-- right? I am having a hard time getting my head around the idea of a tornado with winds 25% stronger than Greensburg and Parkersburg. I mean, that doesn't even make sense to me. Like you, I am kind of shocked to hear a figure like that even mentioned in the "Enhanced Fujita Era". It looks like this really might be a contender for strongest surveyed tornado. Just wow. Just bizarre.

I see JoMo lurking. JoMo, were you in one of the colored areas? If so, which one?

Everyone-- Check out this map: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fwww.crh.noaa.gov%2Fimages%2Fsgf%2Fevents%2F2011may22%2FJoplin_damage_path_all.kmz&aq=&sll=37.05253,-94.475199&sspn=0.20276,0.299034&ie=UTF8&ll=37.057369,-94.478302&spn=0.131512,0.219727&t=p&z=12 Uncheck all of the boxes except F5. Then zoom in real close and look at how many houses and buildings this presumed EF5 area encompasses.

Yep. Tony's about to post-- curious what his opinion is.

Yeah, see above. winterymix pointed out the menu on the left, where you can check and uncheck the isotachs to make them appear and disappear. But, you're an expert in this stuff. Do you believe the EF5 damage area is that large and solid?

OK, cool. I looked at it and I see what you're saying. When you check and uncheck the EF5 checkbox, that inner isotach appears and disappears. So, we now know they did, in fact, mean EF5. That mystery is solved. It doesn't change my skepticism a bit. I can only assume that map is meant as an extremely rough approximation.

Correct, there were other instances of F5 damage in that storm. My point is simply that when there are instances, they're highly localized. The Parkersburg-New Hartford tornado produced EF5 damage in two towns very far apart-- but the instances were isolated. Ugh-- me, too!