arlwx

Looks like it's still damp here in Arlington.

((Although earlier they did salt the Hill of Doom here.))

LWX on the start of next week:

High pressure will dominate Saturday with a little moderation in
temps. However, by Sunday, another system is pushing northeastward
towards us, with warm advection precip breaking out in our region by
day`s end. Cold air looks marginal by this point, so while a mix may
start, this again looks like a system which will transition to more
liquid than frozen. The low track towards the lower Great Lakes
certainly will not help keep the cold air around, though some
damming could result in more wintry mix in the favored spots
northwest of I-95.

As a back-surgeried warminista, I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Febrrary is ended.

A few stray flakes in Arlington.

Waiting until February, according to the GFS, to start looking for my flamethrower.

Arlington just sent down a truck to spray sand and salt all over The Hill of Doom.

They must be concerned about the freeze forecast for tonight. They normally don't do it for the coating that was on the road.

Rain mixing in near DCA.

I guess LWX wanted to note the prospect of freezing rain...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

DCZ001-VAZ054-160500-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.201216T1500Z-201217T0600Z/
District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
400 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  of 1 to 2 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible on
  elevated surfaces.

* WHERE...In District of Columbia, District of Columbia. In
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. Snow will
  overspread the area between 9 and 11 AM, and change to sleet and
  rain during the early afternoon. Some rain may freeze on
  elevated surfaces.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square.

Cross-posting:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   105 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     Central and Southern New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Eastern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
     700 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   105 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     Central and Southern New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Eastern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
     700 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Tornado watch issued.

For central/southern MD. MD/DE Eastern Shore

And parts of NJ.

BWI: 17
DCA: 14
IAD: 20
RIC: 10

SBY: 7

((This warminista is hoping for a repeat of last year, but going more with climo.))

LWX forecasts show potential freezes for Wednesday and Thursday mornings for BWI, maybe RIC too.

DCA is reporting 2.17" so far for the event.

The Four Mile Run gauge shows about 2.3".

The GFS currently shows no love for freezinists through 19 Nov.

((so although I didn't spot the contest sooner, I would be on course to be busting bigtime on BWI (31 Oct), RIC (8 Nov) and some for DCA too (15 Nov).))

Close at IAD and BWI but still no cigar.  ((oops, just spotted IAD snuck in a 32 on 31 Oct))

DCA 42

BWI 35

IAD 33

RIC 38

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
414 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

MDZ004>006-505-507-508-VAZ505-WVZ053-300415-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0010.201031T0700Z-201031T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0013.201031T0700Z-201031T1300Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Western Loudoun-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Jarrettsville,
Aberdeen, Purcellville, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
414 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern
  Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Harford and Southeast
  Harford Counties. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County. In West
  Virginia, Jefferson County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

(snip)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-107-113-137-139-153-157-
165-171-187-510-600-610-660-683-685-790-820-840-050200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            AUGUSTA             CLARKE
CULPEPER             FAIRFAX             FAUQUIER
FREDERICK            GREENE              HIGHLAND
LOUDOUN              MADISON             ORANGE
PAGE                 PRINCE WILLIAM      RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          WARREN




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           FAIRFAX             FALLS CHURCH
HARRISONBURG         MANASSAS            MANASSAS PARK
STAUNTON             WAYNESBORO          WINCHESTER
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC001-003-005-013-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-050200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             ANNE ARUNDEL        BALTIMORE
CARROLL              FREDERICK           HARFORD
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for DC and surrounding counties.

LWX may want to fix this part of the forecast...

Freeze watches moving ever closer to Baltimore and Washington.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ006-507-081530-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
Including the cities of Reisterstown, Cockeysville,
and Jarrettsville
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ004-005-503-505-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-081530-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Lovingston,
Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville,
Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the first Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures
  as low as 31 possible. For the second Freeze Watch, sub-
  freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Maryland and
  central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...For the first Freeze Watch, from late tonight through
  Saturday morning. For the second Freeze Watch, from late
  Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

MDZ504-506-VAZ052-053-055-056-081530-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Spotsylvania-
Including the cities of Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg,
Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
and Fredericksburg
330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery and
  Central and Southeast Howard Counties. In Virginia, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Stafford and
  Spotsylvania Counties.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.


$$

LWX posted freeze warnings for early Saturday west of the Blue Ridge, freeze watches just to the east.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ003-VAZ025>031-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-080230-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-
Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson,
New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal,
Berryville, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw,
Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, and Moorefield
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northwest
  and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-080230-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown,
Monterey, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch,
Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville,
Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle,
and Sugar Grove
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 23 expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Central and
  Eastern Allegany Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland and
  Eastern Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant,
  Eastern Grant, Western Mineral, Eastern Mineral, Western
  Pendleton and Eastern Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-080230-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville,
Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville,
Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn,
and Sterling
216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northern
  Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

If LWX is to be believed, I'd expect quite a few road closures due to small streams out of their banks. I DO hope Arlington has fixed its drains and alerted persons living/working in the usual suspect spots (think Westover, the area of South Glebe Road near the sewage plant, etc.).

From the latest LWX discussion:

(snip)
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Notable trends seen this cycle among global models were that
the GFS trended deeper/more amplified, closer to the Euro with
the upper level trof/closed low fcst to dig across the mid-Atlc
states Thu-Fri. Timing differences with respect to upper level
trof axis moving across the area have decreased significantly
and the rainfall potential has increased somewhat since 24 hrs
ago. Anticipating a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event
late Wed night into early Thu evening with widespread 1.5 -2.5
inches with the potential for up to 4 inches (reasonable worst
case scenario) with heaviest amounts east of the Blue Ridge and
Catoctin mountains. Forcing and moisture will be plentiful with
instability lacking which would limit rainfall rates, but
prolonged period of the event, deep moisture, and strong upper
level divergence will compensate for lack of instability. While
heaviest amounts are expected east of the Blue Ridge, enough
spread is shown in the ensembles and difference percentiles to
include areas west of the Blue Ridge. Have issued a Flood Watch
for much of the area separated with two segments, a western
segment with beginning and ending time of 08Z-16Z Thu, and an
eastern segment running from 16Z Thu-02Z Fri.
(snip)