StruThiO

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

So how do you explain 2013? 

Well below average ACE, non-El Nino

Following winter was cold & snowy

Oddball year with a springtime THC collapse

Lid's coming off

34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.

Yeah because we are in a strong El Nino just like 2009!!! Surely there hasn't been record strong Pacific trades, the lowest MEI ever observed except during the La Nina of 2010, historically low ONI etc etc etc etc etc.........................

2 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Given how bearish the board is

Buy low; sell high. My $MDR calls about to print big boy bucks :]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Did  someone say the super duper awesome fantastic  conditions  were  coming? East  Pac says this  is a super el nino.

 

This  is horrific  for MDR development. A cat 5 cut  off  low wandering around the  middle  of the Atlantic. Tropics  killer

 

TICK, TICK, TICK. CSU should  have went  6/3/1 for the rest  of the season and we  might  not  make that  with a  very  real probability The Fast and Furious watch will be  cancelled, no wheel, no euro super ridge, and the east  pac popping  canes  like bees to honey.

k. meanwhile

12 hours ago, ldub23 said:

All of a sudden a  cool subtropics is  bad? Ive read the  super warm subtropics  of  years  past  were  bad  for  the  MDR.

Eastern subtropics exhibits a positive correlation, in the domain of the AMO horseshoe. Western and central subtropics exhibits a far weaker correlation, so you can't group the entire subtropics as one whole like this.

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

What does August hold for NS in the basin? Consider these stats

- Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997.
- Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August.
- 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th!
- The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August.
- Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August. 

Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August. Even if the first half has none, 1996, 1998, and 1999 all show that 4 NS the 2nd half of the month is doable. In addition, keep in mind that models often don't pick up on a general upturn in activity til the last minute or sometimes even not at all.

This feels like 2019, lol. MDR was a Sahara; comically dry from the Caribbean to Cape Verde, only through the C name and DEAD until late August.. but then what happened? Dorian happened.

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 You can forget about that deal. ldub would be back, which is fine with me since it would show (s)he's OK and also it is an entertaining tradition that has always kept the threads active during quiet periods.

At least he taught me a new word today - "vamoose"

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There is hope for it but the fact is as we approach fall we 'normally' strengthen the ENSO state whichever it may be and with us sitting at a previous trimonthly of -1.0 already and the subsurface I have concerns. This just highlights the east coast waters well. 

Agree; the modoki look will get shredded once this new upwelling KW propagates to the point of emergence. Will very much look classic again then until the transition away in Winter begins IMO

7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im surprised this  has  gone  unmentioned.

frankly none of us fixate on operational GFS 300-h forecasts quite like this

Trades are only going to continue to rip as the MJO circles back to p4/5..

Don't really have words for what we are witnessing.. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before..

The record-strong easterly wind stress has now resulted in the incredible initiation of an extremely potent upwelling Kelvin wave.

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Could  this end  up being the deadest  of dead seasons? Another  person joins the bandwagon. Beginning  of the season now  pushed  back to sometime  in Sept. Has the  cane season began and ended  in the same  month? I  would advise CSU  to cut  numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats  only assuming the season actually  keeps  going  in OCT which seems  unlikely. Why were the  forecasters  so horribly  wrong  about this season? Please  chime  in on why they did such a horrible  job.

If this  is what we get  in a  La  Nina please for all thats  holy  give  us a super el nino next season. It  cant  possibly  be  any deader than this season was. I think the  best  idea  is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just  look at the  pattern after the start  of the season. I was wondering  back in early  june where all the hype  was  coming  from when it seemed rather  obvious the  overall pattern was NOT  going to produce a season of  note. This season was quite dead. Lets  hope  next season has a  bit  of  moisture  in the tropics.

It's July

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Please i hope for  an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the  last  2 seasons.

Well, this does seems likely; after 3 years of La Nina it is likely to have exhausted itself and the El Nino response will probably initiate in Winter thru Spring 23

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Well, by all means show  us some  hyperactive  maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO?

It's July

Just now, ldub23 said:

Euro says the  Sahara desert  has  come to the Atlantic. Is this the  look of a  hyperactive season?

 

Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence

8 hours ago, floridapirate said:

There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast.  I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year?  I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?

Totally normal. June + July combined don't even account for 10% of climatological hurricane activity.

Here's a gif of monthly 500mb heights, long term mean, 1991-2020 climo. Observe the yearly maxima in ridging in July. This is why right now is the peak of Saharan dust season (and also season cancel season).

It's also why August onwards constitute about 93% of climatological hurricane activity.

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

Also, this is demonstrably incorrect. Thanks for playing, though!

On 7/19/2022 at 2:05 PM, ldub23 said:

No change  in the  pattern as  of  aug 04. Protective  offshore trof, low  pressure  in northeast. If the  euros's big  ridge and  jb's wheel are going to appear  we  need to see a  pattern reversal rather  soon. Another  hurricane  in the east  pac  though

It's July

On 7/22/2022 at 12:02 PM, ldub23 said:

Atlantic  has possible disturbances while the east  pac  has  hurricanes. I do think August will be rightside  up, not  sideways

It's July

14 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying  it was  going to be an east  coast season and  a  long  lasting season i disagreed and  it wasnt. Right  now  the  MJO is supposedly  favorable yet  nothing  is  happening. The  MJO isnt going to stay favorable and  if  it  goes  negative  in mid aug the season might  not start till mid sept. If the  MJO is favorable  it sure  isnt  producing any clouds.

If anyone still thinks  its going to be an active season please  chime  in.

It's July

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

It's July

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

12 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Maybe things will be going  sideways but  there will still be  nothing  of  note as  long as the eastern super trof  is  in full force and effect and this  map with US protective  low  pressure  over the  NW ATL shows absolutely no change  in the  pattern. No sign at all of the  EURO'S NW ATL ridge  or  JB's  newfoundland wheel. They were predicted  last season as well and  never showed  up. This wintertime  pattern also means an early  end to a late starting season unless we  have a rather  unlikely  pattern reversal. Getting  a  bit  late for  that.
 

 
This will be a  tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite  picture you can see the  offshore protective  trof  while  we can see  yet another reinforcement  on the way. To me things still appear rightside  up.
 

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer.

Minor correction but 2004 was an El Nino year. The import is still very true, as usual weenies gonna weenie

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Good thing  we are  in a  La  Nina or the east  pac  would  be  hyperactive. Think we will see something  like this  in the Atlantic this season?

 

We will see hurricanes but probably not that 2017-esque. Also I wouldn't trust GFS as far as I can throw it

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I agree with JB here IF we do have a  Newfoundland wheel. The wheel is  very important  for  cane season and winter. IF there really  is a  wheel then the  US coast will be at risk and a  big east  coast season usually  means a  cold  stormy winter.

 

 

how can i get your weenie tag

PDO is a regression of North Pacific SSTs. While the "horseshoe" region has warmed, the area extending east of Japan is still blazing hot and is anomalously warmer than the horseshoe. This still yields a net negative PDO, even after the recent warming. June will still be solidly negative although higher than this Spring.

Definitely bullish on a flip to +PDO along with onset of El Nino.. finally.. around Spring 2023. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MJ MEI down to -1.9....lowest since ND 2010 and lowest on record for MJ dating back to 1948.

Def. gives reason for pause on the el nino train of thought.

The El Nino response to this will take time.. but I think could result in the strongest since 2015. Moderate to strong. We are due