WolfStock1
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About WolfStock1

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
LEE
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Leesburg, VA
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Sorry but the notion that *any* person or organization could have enough information to make such a judgment - let alone there be "consensus" on it, is laughable. This kind of judgment requires essentially omniscience - a full and complete view of the long lists of benefits and drawbacks, with appropriate weighting, and timescales, applied to each. This is some that people and organizations - even collectively - don't have. Let alone on an individual basis, such as what would be required for "consensus". In case you're wondering why there's so much pushback - this is why. People don't like baseless statements like this. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Given that the greater Kyoto area has a population of 3.6 million people (with I'm sure a similar but upward-sloping curve), and is thus subject to UHI effect - I'd say yeah you could adjust that. Not saying UHI accounts for that - just saying that it can account for some portion of it. I'll reiterate what I have often before - IMO the only fully valid datasets with regards to MMGW are ones from truly remote areas. Sea ice, ocean temps, and fully-rural sensors - thumbs up. City-based or even suburban sensor data - not so much. -
Don't forget - Artemis II launches this evening! First time mankind has been beyond Earth's orbit since 1974. Where to watch: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/where-to-watch-artemis-ii-launch/ (in addition to NASA channel of course)
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Hope you all don't me me starting a thread on this. As a layman weather enthusiast, and a "visual person", one of my go-to things for getting a good feel for the weather coming was a "radar forecast" loop that was created from the NAM, and posted here: http://hp5-dev.wright-weather.com/nam-conus-radar-loop_1hour.gif As of February it stopped being updated though - the last one was Feb 24th. That website doesn't even exist as a site anymore - my guess is the creation and posting of that gif had been automated many years ago and it just wasn't being maintained, and something along the chain of automation was taken offline or broke on that day. Anyone know if such a thing is created and posted anywhere? (I'm sure the pros on here view that as an amateurish thing, but it actually seemed to be fairly accurate from what I could tell; certainly more useful than not having anything, and more useful to me at least than static maps)
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Thanks.
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A general request for everyone. Whenever you post a chart - can you post a link to the source? (I get into discussions with others and often want to point them to the data; or in some case I want to look at subsets / variations of the data - e.g. this case it's not clear which year is the record year that we're contending with.) Thanks.
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So a big *wow* at that super-strike the other night. Talking with a Leesburg FD person in church this morning - they got a bunch of calls from people reporting "a big explosion". And this is 15 miles from where the strike happened. I can't image how loud it must have been in Brunswick. Anyone happen to have any direct reports or pictures of where it struck?
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
50 states x 12 months = 600 records for "highest temperature for state X during month Y". To be honest - breaking one of those every now and then seems like not so much of a big deal, and would be expected regardless of whether the planet is warming or not. Point being - perhaps showing trendlines of more broad data would be a lot more meaningful and poignant that touting a given broken single-state record for a given month. As it is these posts with their desert graphics, and the obvious troll phrasing, seem very... tabloidish (or perhaps clickbait-ish being the modern equivalent), especially on a forum that thrives on deep data analysis. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
That's fine, except the rest of the world is generally in a different situation than the US. And the switch to renewables has been painful in many places. Germany has been the poster child, but their electricity prices have been skyrocketing, and their economy is struggling as a result. But even with that - most of their energy use is still fossil - well over 70%: So again - what is the scale of those charts you posted? It's not there, for a reason. All they show is "up", but they don't show how *much* up, relative to actual fossil usage. China has indeed been going full-bore to renewables, but they're still mostly fossil: They're at about 10% wind and solar. Again - low-hanging fruit; not baseline power. And they generally have zero respect for the environment; doing big projects that just aren't feasible in the US. With regards to EV sales - apples to oranges situation-wise. They're still heavily subsidized in most places. If they're a slam-dunk - then why are they so heavily subsidized? China's EV sales have been doing great - and that's great - but Chinese workers are paid about 1/3 the salary of the US; they can afford to do everything cheaper. Low hanging fruit, as they try to catch up with the developed work economy-wise. If they had our level of prosperity they would not be able to do this. China is also building tons of new coal power plants BTW, along with their renewables growth. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Look - I'm not trying to argue that renewable energy isn't a good thing, and that it's use is not growing. I'm just saying that the over/under on benefits vs costs are generally way overblown and propagandized; that the reality is that it's harder than people such as yourself think it is, in particular when it's applied on a universal scale of all energy. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Except that data is old. And there's no scale. And it's obviously cumulative, not showing actual new deployments over time. In short - it's fluff propaganda, not reflecting reality. E.g. EV sales are now on the decline - e.g. see CA and NY who have detailed trackers on sales, due to their mandate (which will clearly not be met at this point) As I've maintained - much of renewable energy has been "low hanging fruit" so far, in particular in the U.S. Specifically - nearly all of our wind-based electricity and our solar-based electricity in the US is generated in places that have... lots of wind and lots of sun. But - not coincidentally - that tends to be places where there aren't as many people living. The fraction of renewable generation and use that happens in states that don't get as much sun is much smaller. The problem is that the highest population concentrations in the US live in those areas - in particular the NE population corridor. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Making a blanket statement like that shows how how much you've been influenced by the propaganda machine, and generally ill-informed. In general no - renewables are not cheaper in most circumstances, when all factors are considered (inclusion of additional baseline power sources for when the wind and sun don't cooperate, additional transmission infrastructure, higher land use, etc.). They can be cheaper only in specific circumstances when the stars align; they are not cheaper in a broad-use infrastructure sense. If they were cheaper, then power companies wouldn't need the much-higher-level of subsidies to incentivize their use. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Presuming that you're talking about nuclear - the problem is that there has always been *too much* talk about the tail risk; i.e. blowing out of proportion. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Interesting. Got a link for that? I didn't realize wind and solar prices had been going up like that. You hear about prices going down, though generally it doesn't include the transmission aspect; which is generally much higher because wind and solar are prevalent in areas where people that use the energy *aren't* as prevalent. As such I've maintained that we're about done picking the solar and wind "low hanging fruit"; this chart appears to show evidence of that.
