Chadzachadam

The trend is my friend for Sunday! Looks like models are converging on the strung out euro solution. Euro AI and Ukie most consistently showed this and never really got on board with a full phase

Kind of wild how different the models are only ~48 hours out. gfs west, ukie and euro way east, nam and icon kind of in the middle

Agreed, certainly some ways this can either fail completely (out to sea), or at least not really phase until Monday. Even if the complicated setup does come together, Miller Bs usually come in with ULL precip earlier than progged and then dry slot for what feels like forever until the coastal gets cranking. Getting that dry slot Sunday afternoon-evening would be lovely lol

Euro and Euro AI are slower and further east with the coastal. GFS and ICON faster and further west. Euro AI has been pretty consistent with keeping this east and would be another big win for that model if it verifies (if I recall correctly it also did the best with the slow progression of Imelda which led to it curving out to sea rather than into the SE coast)

We do have a tent (with zippers on the sides) for the reception but might just have to ask everyone to bring umbrellas for the ceremony. That part should be quick though so just 20 minutes without rain between 4:25 and 4:45 is all I ask There is still quite a bit of spread on the model guidance, with the AI models keeping us dry through midnight Monday and the operational models trending towards a lot of rain, especially the ICON which has been pretty consistent with bringing 2-4+" into the Philly metro. Seems like a lot of moving pieces that need to all be timed pretty perfectly for the serious rain totals and that hasn't worked out for us recently, but that doesn't mean it won't work out this time (and it probably will since this is the one time I don't want it to)! I will note that local NWS discussions and meteorologists seem a lot less bullish on the rain potential than the national ones, which could be hint, or maybe they'll adjust upwards in the coming days.

Thank you! Yea we’ll make the best of it regardless but sure wouldn’t mind 70 and sunny lol

Getting married outside in Philly on Sunday so watching this closely. There probably hasn't been a coastal system that broke through the ridge and made it this far north since we started planning the wedding ~15 months ago, would be remarkably bad timing for it to happen this weekend but the models do hint at the ridge drifting east and weakening for a couple days allowing the low to come up the coast and then sort of hang out for a few days as the ridge tries to build back

Euro 12Z trying to do something Sandy-like next weekend

Yep, long way away but multiple models have Imelda or its remnants somewhere along the East Coast until like 10/10

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

Pouring here in Philly. Slow mover too, might get half an inch or more. Heard one rumble of thunder. This low pressure system looks almost tropical in its configuration and rotation

Storm really coming together over Philly. Heavy rain and backbuilding too. Might pick up a quick inch

Steady showers just regenerating over me for the last hour or so. Moisture begets moisture I guess. 0.35" since this morning

Basically stationary storm over me for the last 45 minutes, picked up another 0.70" to bring my two-day total up to 2.95" with plenty more on the way