blueberryfaygo

6 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

closing in on 3 inches

Wow.. for this band?  Or the entire event?

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s 6-8” range chief. I reported 6.2”.

I was just joking with   I probably got around 5 total.. but its only about 3.5 inches deep right now.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The warm layer and mix line will almost always work more NW that what's forecast. It's one of those tested weather rules in these parts.

Damn.. some places in new Jersey got three feet.  Thats two all time Records this year up north.  Binghamton was the previous one back on December.  

I think we are next... 

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I grew up in Ellicott City. At least there, we’d get significantly higher totals than surrounding areas. I lived on the top of centennial lane and the lift there compared to surrounding areas was simply a thing of beauty. Really was a great microclimate. 

I am very familiar with that area.. yeah thats where I drive out to when the city is getting screwed.  I like to walk around the lake in the snow.  

35 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm pretty sure Philly ended up with something similar to what Baltimore got. Honestly, NYC got a bit unlucky, if you can call it that. It snowed like crazy there for 6 hours or so, but otherwise all that banding pushed inland and they were basically done.

What happened was that basically the entire 95 corridor basically got dry slotted and warm layer.. the heavy snow bands set up to the north and west for just about everyone.. I was surprised by the 20 inch ob up in Frederick County.. but it makes sense given the way the banding set up.. snowing hard now in Baltimore.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

That yellow pixel in eastern HoCo is me! Lol 

 

hmmm.. thats your ob?  so everyone howard county reported 4-6 but you somehow managed to get an  8 inch lolli?  

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hopefully not but that’s the nature of the chase. There are no guarantees. 

I drove to York Last night.. wound up stopping with my kids and wife and ate at https://primantibros.com/locations ... They probably had 10 on the ground and it was still snowing hard.  I really wanted to head up to allen town.. but I worked all day and was worried about the drive home.  

It was a fun chase!  As soon as you cross Maryland line... 83 was snow covered.

did @anotherman actually fly out for 4 inches?

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

My kid's teacher let them out early today so they could go play in the snow. That was nice of her.  

I just made an executive decision on that one too.. packing up the car and heading north east

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

.

If you believe the NAM or the GFS then today is gonna be a fun day for some people in this forum.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Actually moderate snow in Reisterstown. If this keeps up for a few hours, I might push low end warning criteria.

How much do you have on the ground now?

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I am over in Roland Park/Mt Washington area and I can assure you it is not. 

Baltimore just might star in the game over night... would be interesting for you all to wake up with a fresh 4 inches on the ground...

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically.  Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? 

I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate).

I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! 

 Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. 

So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics.  This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways?

Anyways, I think  this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. 

Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool. 

Do triple phaser like 93 happen regularly around the globe?  But just not over the eastern portion of the US.. or was that a true global phenomenon event?

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

there are tons of online resources. go forth and educate yourself.

I just punished my kids for not cleaning their rooms.. the punishment was that they have to watch netflix or hulu.. but not youtube

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Welcome back @Bob Chill. I missed you more than i miss sex. I hope to you see you again for next Sunday’s storm. It’s no fun around here without you. 

hmmmm..

26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Once again....acceptable

What I am seeing is that while previously we were seeing the banding set up on a east to west trajectory, we are now seeing the models pick up on additional banding that sets  up in a NW to SE trajectory as the low slowly gains latitude.  This banding feature is being picked up by pretty much every model... its gonna to absolutely pummel someone.. a lot of suspense on this one.. I wonder which mesa scale model will nail it.

Just now, Deck Pic said:

I have a feeling we will see high ratios.  Its really cold.. it ill be one of those instant accumulation deals.. Hope we can squeeze 6-12 over CWA.

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

they need to beef up the EC2 instances that the Euro seems to be running on - too slow.

F-it they should just run it on Lambda

8 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

 

How much for St Croix?

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

holy shit thats funny

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Anyone believing the CMC is right needs to go to bed now. 

what that their will be CCB setting up somewhere across the northeast portion of our sub?  How is that so hard to believe? 

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Some biblical maps!

yeah.. the models are starting to show mesoscale potential.  Banding is going to set up somewhere.. It appears to be favoring the north and east portions of the sub.. hopefully it is generous and we all some serious conveyor belt stuff.  

Just now, jaydreb said:

NE MD pummelled! 

what worries me is I keep seeing that southern NJ jackpot... back in December a storm pivoted over the NE like this one.. and some people saw all time records.. the way this thing tucks and pivots tells me that their is going to be a isolated max potential area.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

CMC cut back on the waa this run. 3 or 4 inches for everyone. 

Would that be the first sign that things are going wrong?  I remember a storm like this once about 10 years ago where we were supposed to get a foot and the next morning I had two inches and regular citizens in Philly were digging snow out of the stadium in order to have a football game.