Beach Snow

Hopefully ensembles are further east…but that NW trend went a little too quick…oh well plenty of time still

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

18z RGEM also trended away from holding back the baja s/w

Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back?

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah but isn't this counting this storm? If so, this doesn't look as good as u think...

No only thing is the western mountains range. From charlotte east it’s new 

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks really good. I count about half of the members that have a good storm here. 

Agree quite a few so the OP seems to Somewhat of an outlier 

Ensemble not terrible

Individual members 

Euro ensemble not terrible

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I mean, is there even coastal snow?

Very little just on Obx like UK

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Good, then we can get the NW trend.

Agree, still promising the Canadian has the storm it didn’t too bad on todays storm. Would like to see GFS come back at 18z

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Any euro news? 

Out to 141 so far doesn’t look like it’s going to do it…. Comparing to 0z it’s very suppressed 

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Let's just hope the models get it right this far out this time. The storm we're getting today looked like a lot of snow here until 5 days out. 

Tuesday 0z should be some good tracking and trends to watch if she holds.

25 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

 

If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward

Excellent point we saw how much the current storm trended NW on the GFS.

Canadian goes Boom!! Wow will post map in second

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Looks like the GFS lost it

Yup it’s Gone but sometimes they will loose the storm and bring them back within 4 days so really need to see the models pick the storm up again tomorrow and Tuesday or it may just have been a fantasy..

edit- looks like it’s delayed to Sunday/Monday vs Friday/ Saturday not a met so can’t tell

Looking at GFS and EURO the consistency was there from about 120 hours from every model run forward with the current storm. Wouldn’t mind being in the bullseyes once we get in within 120 hours. Might be able to seriously track it after todays 12z or 0z tomorrow if they keep showing the signal for a storm.

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not getting my hopes up until this gets closer after how the last couple of chances have gone LOL.

Only good thing so far is GFS and Euro are suppressed to the SE. gives some roof for the NW trend that we know will happen

9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Much appreciated. that looks great. if gfs/icon/cmc roll in looking good then lets get this thread up around noonish

 

We already have a thread opened up 

Compared to 12z it’s a large increase in snow on the mean

17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

does anybody have 00z EPS imagery for this, like some snow means, maybe a 51 member chart for rdu/gso etc

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

What's the latest runs showing?

So far ICON lost the storm and GFS is more south east but still has the storm and some snow in SC and NC but slides off the coast with little impact. This is good gives us room on inevitable NW trend. 

For what it’s worth 18z GFS came in with a monster snow storm. 12z nothing. Now the Euro, GEM, ICON and GFS showing same solution!

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Someone pin this please. This could be one of the biggest rain storms in January in NC history. It deserves a pin.

I hope it’s the biggest snowstorm in history

33 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Yes. I’m in the bullseye 7 days out, what could go wrong?

Hahaha me too!

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Keep that baby trending NW

Too early for that or it’ll be a cutter up the Ohio valley