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CHItoMKE916

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Everything posted by CHItoMKE916

  1. CHItoMKE916
    late run 18z HRRR joins the rest of the models in this big time
  2. CHItoMKE916
    How's the HRW FV3 model been? I'm assuming not good with winter events? The weenie in me is binning it with other higher resolution models that are shifting North.
  3. CHItoMKE916
    I could so envision a scenario where Cook gets to 10" plus by getting lucky with the frotogenetic band and then additional lake effect/enhancement while the main storm passes Southeast.
  4. CHItoMKE916
    I saw that haha. I'd love to see that individual member
  5. CHItoMKE916
    And SREF is also still NW. Grasping at straws lol
  6. CHItoMKE916
    I keep remembering this winter one of these forecast originally in NIL and it ended up in southern WI. Not 100% but pretty sure it happened.
  7. CHItoMKE916
    I was talking about the 21Z which is even better and obviously doesn't cover the main event. Plumes are terrible though at long range, so just watching how they trend.
  8. CHItoMKE916
    Tom Skilling would never
  9. CHItoMKE916
    SREF plumes coming in hot for ORD
  10. CHItoMKE916
    Euro ensembles should be very interesting
  11. CHItoMKE916
    And another jump of 11" to 20"+ NW to SE
  12. CHItoMKE916
    Hasn't fully loaded yet, but looks like almost all GFS ensemble members are north of the OP with the overrunning snows?
  13. CHItoMKE916
    Odds we see aircraft sampling of the disturbance in the Pacific given potential large impacts?
  14. CHItoMKE916
    As expected, lots of amped GFS ensemble members
  15. CHItoMKE916
    The CIPS top analogs show a ton of big hitters (majority including Chicago).
  16. CHItoMKE916
    Bump
  17. CHItoMKE916
    Probably posted here before, but another fun mesoscale model I look at here has been depicting the north/ central Cook bullseye too on its member #1 that just updated. http://hopwrf.info/
  18. CHItoMKE916
    West trend in the lake band didn't correct back yet. Likely headlines for Cook soon? Bet lots of people will be caught off guard for tomorrow morning's commute.
  19. CHItoMKE916
    I take it this is a faux wagons west that will correct back east? I would've expected people to at least get hopes up since the trend hasn't stopped yet?
  20. CHItoMKE916
    Very small flake size in the city still but it got a lot heavier the last few minutes, backed up by radar returns too
  21. CHItoMKE916
    Tons more moisture robbing from those Ohio Valley storms https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20220102_NAMMW_prec_precacc-50-100.gif
  22. CHItoMKE916
    More negative tilt to the secondary wave as well so far?
  23. CHItoMKE916
    Haven't seen much talk about possible lake enhancement, but seeing hints of it at the end of the 3km NAM (obvious long range caveats apply)
  24. CHItoMKE916
    I'm located at the same location and can confirm. Most of that was from last night, but it's coming down fast now.
  25. CHItoMKE916
    My work wants me to drive from Chicago to Grand Rapids tomorrow or Tuesday and I'm having a hard time convincing them it's not a great idea given the huge change in the forecast. Big Oof. At least I'll experience lake effect?
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