Scottie16

Something of note* Most of the forum is well under forecasted lows tonight. It continues to drop imby (17•) .

That GFS run! .

0Z will be worth staying up for imo. .

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas .

Thank you! .

-55.4 in the Yukon on the 26th. Coldest it’s been in that area in 26 years. They still are going through attic outbreaks. I couldn’t imagine driving through extreme temperatures like that. I believe it’s something with the programming along with the cold. Some models are suggesting that Florida will be colder than North Dakota Friday morning.. Seems like we have every ingredient but moisture and I see what the models say but it just doesn’t digest well with me. .

ARW. I never saw a vort tighten and move direct west like that. Thanks Holston. .

I think some of us have been spoiled in the past few years of a good thumping of snow early in January. We really don’t see that many opportunities this early so it’s a plus. I don’t believe any model has a direct handle on it. While some may agree on location/track they will differ in moisture/ temps. I used to be a big follower of David Aldrich due to how positive he was but since he left the area I’ve started talking to Mike Witcher and he’s still skeptical of what the models are putting out. .

Could you clip the vort on the WRF? I tried but it keeps giving me an error. .

Models are struggling, I’ve spent the better half of my day looking at all the SRM and it’s the least confident I have been with them in quite some time. .

I wouldn’t completely check out on either wave. .

I look forward to Carvers and others input here honestly. .

Waiting for the rest to update, intrigued so far. .

ICON with a uptick in moisture so far for the first wave .

We are almost in SMR! .

Seems like the west coast is experiencing that Pineapple Express you spoke on earlier. Id assume that’s causing some errors with each model. .

Seems like the GFS is starting to struggle with it too. Although the low seems to cut through Kentucky and end up in virgina now. .

Have we saw similiar setups like that before? I’m running through notes and can’t find what I’m looking for .

Seems like it’s being influenced by the low off the west coast of Mexico? .

Really not a warm nose with this system. Temperatures out in middle Tennessee continue to drop. Using the data from the past few days most of the area would be around freezing at 7PM. .

Was supposed to warm up to 47 imby. Currently sitting at 41.6. .

What I like to do is look on wunderground at the different weather stations throughout the valley. It usually is a good indicator on where the rain/snow line could setup during nowcasting. .

Off and on heavy streamers in Sweetwater. .

2.2 imby (SweetH20) fine flakes still falling 28F 27DP. Radar showing another build of moisture over the Central Valley as the L lifts north. Could see more flakes fly soon. Tonight into tomorrow morning will be extremely interesting. The flow is beginning to set up over Mid NW Tennessee. Potential is there for power outages in some areas due to blown transformers. (Melt off +frigid temperatures) x the storms we saw this year already. A wise electrician told me to always keep blankets handy when you see snow in February march. All in all, this was a nice clipper! Hopefully we see more! .

Radar showing a band west of Knoxville building. Hopefully that trend continues. .