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Posts posted by ineedsnow
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The weather channel just had a video of it snowing in Tolland yesterday Kevs town is famous today!
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Thankfully no one uses sand anymore . I hated those days
whatever they use there was alot of it... expecting .10 to .25 here.. Driving to my moms house in Agawam later hoping it warms by then
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light zr my car was showing 25 on the way to the gas station.. I felt like I was driving on the beach with the amount of salt and sand they were putting down..
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Euro starting to hit the ice threat
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HRRR is icy tomorrow
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Dropping by at 7:30 AM to pop in ?
Lol worked last night
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Stopped at a friends house in Agawam atleast 2 here
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Coming down pretty good in westfield everything is white again
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
Little inflow there gets going....maybe we can have a sneaky little critter. Would be fun to get an over achiever finally.
looks like it never gets above freezing here either we take
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icy this morning
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Sell the FRAM, put it in the garbage CAN.
waste of 6.99 lol
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:
The GGEM? That's the FRAM (freezing rain accumulation model) and not the regular QPF one, right? It's probably overdone anyway since I doubt BAF/CEF is getting that much QPF.
ya the FRAM one 0.4 zr qpf total is 0.7
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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:
Pivotal has FRAM maps, but only on the pay side.
shows 0.40 for the springfield area
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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:
Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?)
even half would be fun
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:
We don’t
me and you are just out of it on that model
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4 minutes ago, rimetree said:
Messy commute on reggie tomorrow morning
we ice
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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:
12z Nam has a slp right over my fanny, Wut?
huh?
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western Maine and central NH north get a good amount of snow
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6z Euro has about a half inch of qpf here just needs to be a touch colder and we ice
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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
Oh it will even if a tenth, that can cause havoc
some GEFS members have over a half inch of qpf something to watch I guess
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13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:
Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow.
The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.
Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3".
There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".
Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.
KBDL 58%
KORH 52%
KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)
KPVD 42%
KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)
KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)
KBOS 24%
KBDR 20%
KISP 19%
KEWR 18%
KNYC 15%
how does BDL have a better chance then ORH?
December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
in New England
Posted
Merry Christmas everyone! Hope all of you have a great day!