Jump to content

ineedsnow

Members
  • Posts

    19,469
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by ineedsnow

  1. 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

    Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. 

    The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight
    into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low
    pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal
    precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries
    lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not
    expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday
    morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more
    focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance
    (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to
    keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay
    tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning.
    
    Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there
    unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend
    somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point
    what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the
    western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with
    it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the
    eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance
    which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch
    of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.
    Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall
    exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.
    

    Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". 

    There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".

    2138921461_Screenshot2021-12-21043752.png.921de4f777ef5c69133a71318dfd04ac.png

    Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.

    KBDL 58%

    KORH 52%

    KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KPVD 42%

    KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KBOS 24%

    KBDR 20% 

    KISP 19%

    KEWR 18%

    KNYC 15%

     

     

    how does BDL have a better chance then ORH?

×
×
  • Create New...