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ineedsnow

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    2023 - tracking the tropics

    in New England

    Posted 

    Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day. 
Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that 
the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep 
convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to 
the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands. 
The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data, 
but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective 
organization.

The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt.  Over the next 
couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a 
strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing 
cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in 
2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features.  The 
northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the 
forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across 
eastern North America.  The most notable change in this NHC forecast 
is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an 
adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward 
trend in the track guidance.   The official forecast is close to the 
TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest 
ECMWF and HCCA solutions.  The risk continues to increase for some 
form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach 
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days.

The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United 
States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or 
southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period.  
As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next 
2-3 days.  The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a 
separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west 
of Philippe in about 3 days.  These two systems are likely to 
interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and 
therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4.  It's possible that 
Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic 
interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast.
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