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ineedsnow

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    Wake me Up....when September Ends....

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    This always seems to happen to me.   The prophetic 'water cooler,' seemingly innocuous statement meant purely in jest ends up just f'n happening.   My neighbor and I were discussing the frivolity of "drought" in New England, not more than a week ago - prior to this ordeal even materializing in guidance.

    I said to the guy, "...Climate has a way of finding its way back to normal - right? whether that is done all at once, or over an extended series of events, some how  some way, we always seem to end up where we're supposed to be"   ...  The impetus being, it is almost impossible to finish a year with only 5" of water   ;) 

    Maybe this is taking the all at once road?  

    Speaking of models, assuming this does go on to 4-7" and so forth, the Euro takes the prize for first awareness.   Whether it vacillated after the fact ( they all do anyway ) that guidance picked this up pretty coherently last Thursday.  Just sayn'

    I was on the fence with this in all honesty.  I think I've expressed both ends of the pro and con... pretty much even in both directions.  

    I never liked the general weak synoptic forcing. Models were jumping around with location/max too much, too - a continuity signal that sometimes means too much, just as often as it can be ominous.  They also disagree.   The Euro likes roughly SE VT to N.. RI for 2.5 to 3.5" ... while the GFS is insisting on nearly double those amounts, hammering much of CT/ HFD to NYC.   The NAM?  ...two runs in a row of 6-8" pretty much pan-dimensional HFD-PVD to CON NH is going to be a neat test - but that model takes synoptic 101 for audit anyway.. .  Point being, these disparities are just glaring enough that this is a nerd's porn for model competition.  It may be the common theme is that the models don't do as well in weaker synoptic mechanisms.   They need that "loud" physical scaffolding to perform better.  

    That does not mean no big event though...   It's been a sneaky difficult forecast effort here.

    I do/did like the notion of PWAT pooling along a stationary boundary - those tend to overproduce. That thing in Kentucky several weeks ago is an example ... ( though that's not intended as an analog).  These dense theta-e concurrent with slow moving and/or diffuse frontal convergence ...man, once triggered, it's sort of like the 'atmospheric dam' breaks. 

    12z HRRR with over 15 in SW Tolland county lol

    • Haha 1

    Wake me Up....when September Ends....

    in New England

    Posted

    Stein is dead

      

    .FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode
  Island, including the following areas, in northern Connecticut,
  Hartford CT, Tolland CT and Windham CT. In Massachusetts, Central
  Middlesex MA, Eastern Essex MA, Eastern Hampden MA, Eastern
  Norfolk MA, Eastern Plymouth MA, Northern Bristol MA, Northern
  Middlesex MA, Northern Worcester MA, Southeast Middlesex MA,
  Southern Bristol MA, Southern Plymouth MA, Southern Worcester MA,
  Suffolk MA, Western Essex MA, Western Norfolk MA and Western
  Plymouth MA. In Rhode Island, Block Island RI, Bristol RI, Eastern
  Kent RI, Newport RI, Northwest Providence RI, Southeast Providence
  RI, Washington RI and Western Kent RI.

* WHEN...Through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected over much of
    Southern New England with localized amounts of 5 to 7 inches
    or more.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

    Hurricane Earl

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS.

     First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here):

     MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

                 GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022

       TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  51.1W

         ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                            LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
          VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
          --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
        1200UTC 31.08.2022    0  15.2N  51.1W     1009            24
        0000UTC 01.09.2022   12  16.2N  51.5W     1009            22
        1200UTC 01.09.2022   24  17.1N  53.2W     1008            25
        0000UTC 02.09.2022   36  17.5N  55.3W     1008            23
        1200UTC 02.09.2022   48  17.8N  57.5W     1009            26
        0000UTC 03.09.2022   60  18.1N  59.8W     1009            26
        1200UTC 03.09.2022   72  19.1N  61.6W     1010            28
        0000UTC 04.09.2022   84              CEASED TRACKING

     But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw.

    a few 12z EPS members are interesting

    August Discussion/Obs

    in New England

    Posted

    been pretty meh here had maybe 3 or 4 good storms all summer.. will be in Orlando Thursday so hopefully see something exciting.. Maybe get to see the space launch Friday if they figure out what went wrong on Monday 

    August Discussion/Obs

    in New England

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Reading Bryan Norcross' book on Andrew to kill some time until things pick up...so far, so good.

    I was hoping 91L would produce and come close to the east coast still holding out hope but not looking good now.. on vacation to the 11th so I would go anywhere.. 

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