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ineedsnow

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    December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

    in New England

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

    Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow.  

    The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight
into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low
pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal
precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries
lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not
expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday
morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more
focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance
(we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to
keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay
tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning.

Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there
unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend
somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point
what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the
western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with
it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the
eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance
which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch
of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.
Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall
exceeding 3 inches essentially nil.

    Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". 

    There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0".

    2138921461_Screenshot2021-12-21043752.png.921de4f777ef5c69133a71318dfd04ac.png

    Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England.

    KBDL 58%

    KORH 52%

    KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KPVD 42%

    KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport)

    KBOS 24%

    KBDR 20% 

    KISP 19%

    KEWR 18%

    KNYC 15%

     

     

    how does BDL have a better chance then ORH?

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