.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM Update...
Bit of an overhaul to the forecast. Leaned toward latest FV3
guidance as it is doing well based on latest observations. Added
a much more widespread thunder mention given its happening right
now with a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE per SPC meso. Based on
this added thunder where CAPE AOA 500 J/kg, which matches well
with SPC latest Day 1 Outlook. Still thinking there could be
isolated severe storms with greatest risk of damaging winds
along with hail.