fujiwara79

seems like we spend most of our time chasing unicorns (-ao/-nao).  that unicorn was here all year and didn't deliver much for dc proper.  a bad pacific will easily emasculate a good atlantic.  northwest of the cities it's been a satisfactory winter.  it's underperformed relative to what we should have gotten based on a great -ao/-nao but better the past two winters for sure.

On 1/31/2021 at 5:15 PM, fujiwara79 said:

So the DC metro area was forecast to receive 4-8" of snow.  After this is all over, it seems that forecast will verify.  Granted it will take 48 hours of sporadic light snow to get there, but I wonder why there is so much gloom in this forum.  The heavier snow was always going to be further NE.  At least it wasn't a complete whiff like 12/30/2000 or 12/26/2010 or countless others.  

Hate to say I told you so, but....I told you so.

18" here.  looks like some dry air moving in from the east so it'll stop for a while.

Now up to 15".  Still coming down hard.

12" near Hagerstown.  Judging by the radar and mesos, we're probably heading towards 18".  We went from a bust to an overperformer.

heavy snow near hagerstown.  picked up 2" over the past hour.  9" total.  big fatties.

globals were pretty bad; mesos were pretty good.  according to gfs, we should be pouring rain right now and approaching 40 degrees.  what a terrible model.

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

You sure it’ll verify? I’m NW of DC and I think I’ve had 2” tops. I am wondering if I’ll break 4.

I think 48 hours of sporadic light snow should get you 2 additional inches...so yes!

So the DC metro area was forecast to receive 4-8" of snow.  After this is all over, it seems that forecast will verify.  Granted it will take 48 hours of sporadic light snow to get there, but I wonder why there is so much gloom in this forum.  The heavier snow was always going to be further NE.  At least it wasn't a complete whiff like 12/30/2000 or 12/26/2010 or countless others.  

it seems like the same things happen with every storm:  radar hallucinations, freaking out about dry slots, and declaring the storm to be a failure before it's over.  

On 1/2/2021 at 8:08 AM, RyanDe680 said:

Gah.  Another scientist 

qanon + 4chan = 40westwx

i've noticed on tropical tidbits, the icon never depicts precip that is a mix or ice.  it only shows rain or snow.  any idea why?

On 12/30/2020 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

yeah, the second half of that winter was very active.  the first half of that winter was basically snowless everywhere.  we had a severely negative ao/nao the entire winter though.  i'm guessing the first half of the winter must have been a lot of suppression.  eventually the dam broke and we cashed in.  

ikcarsky sounds like the My Pillow guy.  take some herbal supplements + hcq and call him in the morning.  he'll even give you a a free pillow if you take his cocktail potion.

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60.  and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season?  patience.

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Federalism??? What federalism??? I just see states fighting over limited supplies why the "task force" just lets vaccines sit in a freezer somewhere. Listen, nobody except for a preexisting condition need this vaccine under 60. No healthy 40 year old should even think about it.

if all people need to care about is the risk of dying, then you're probably correct. however, long-term covid symptoms is a very real thing people are experiencing.  it appears similar to chronic lyme disease.  and if you talk to people who have chronic lyme -- their lives are miserable.  hopefully chronic covid doesn't become a big problem, but it definitely lingers in some people longer than the flu.

measles has a much lower ifr than covid and we vaccinate for that.

federalism means most management, governance and coordination is delegated (federated) to the states.  my point was that this doesn't work when managing a crisis.  the government should play a more central role but it currently doesn't.

germany employs federalism as well, but they coordinate much better amongst their regions than we do.

we're having the same issues with the vaccine rollout that we had with testing.  federalism doesn't work for crisis management.  

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.

well, in this case, it appears the rain/snow line for these storms is west of chicago.  montreal, quebec and even labrador are getting rain.

so we have a -ao/-nao/+pna,  and yet all storms cut west of chicago for the next two weeks?  teleconnections are basically meaningless if that's how we roll now.

it appears the 2020 life expectancy will go down between 2-3 years.  2019 life expectancy was 78.8...they are expecting the 2020 life expectancy to be about 76.8.  biggest drop since world war II.  we've also experienced the biggest increase in deaths since the spanish flu in 1918.

if doctors are supposedly just switching the cause of death to covid, in order to get more reimbursement, how exactly does that explain the above?  (don't answer...it's a rhetorical question for the conspiracy theorists)

3400 dead today.  for context: on average, heart disease kills 2100 per day, cancer kills 1800 per day.  so right now covid is killing almost as many people as heart disease and cancer combined. 

but hey, it's not that fatal, 99.997% survive.  or something.   

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta feel for the healthcare workers.  I mean, you know you are going to encounter things in that line of work, but the scale is probably something they didn't imagine.  People talk about mental health of those on the outside during these times, but how about the mental health of the healthcare workers who are dealing with this stuff on a daily basis?  They are often with covid patients as they die since visitation by family members generally isn't allowed.  There are probably going to be lasting mental health consequences for those people long after things start to get back toward normal. 

yes, i've brought this up too.  honestly, i think some of these people need to get off twitter, and take a tour of an overflowing hospital.

tom cruise yelled at the maskless people on the movie set.  too funny.  honestly, this should be how we deal with the anti-mask contingent.  dr. fauci is just way too nice.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/13489709/tom-cruise-covid-rant-mission-impossible-2/

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

For reference, the average December monthly snow for IAD, BWI, DCA is 3.5, 3.0, and 2.3. Not the kind of storm we originally hoped for, but a 12”+ event is not all that common for this time of the year in the MA. We are starting the year off pretty good. 

DCA only got a trace unfortunately.